Wagner-Holt Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,556	2387.3	− 2436	−48.7	× 76 / 257	−14.4
4	79,559	2434.5	− 2485	−50.5	× 65 / 257	−12.8
5	79,560	2478.0	− 2528	−50	× 58 / 257	−11.3
6	79,563	2436.0	− 2552	−116	× 58 / 257	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,738	2384.5	− 2436	−51.5	× 71 / 279	−13.1
4	73,741	2442.1	− 2485	−42.9	× 79 / 279	−12.1
5	73,743	2461.9	− 2528	−66.1	× 70 / 279	−16.6
6	73,744	2474.8	− 2552	−77.2	× 59 / 279	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,715	2377.7	− 2436	−58.3	× 83 / 293	−16.5
4	75,718	2433.0	− 2485	−52	× 66 / 293	−11.7
5	75,720	2464.6	− 2528	−63.4	× 74 / 293	−16
6	75,721	2435.1	− 2552	−116.9	× 70 / 293	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,903	2369.1	− 2436	−66.9	× 76 / 303	−16.8
4	75,904	2435.2	− 2485	−49.8	× 88 / 303	−14.5
5	75,907	2455.5	− 2528	−72.5	× 61 / 303	−14.6
6	75,908	2463.8	− 2552	−88.2	× 78 / 303	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,425	2396.2	− 2436	−39.8	× 71 / 283	−10
4	76,426	2431.3	− 2485	−53.7	× 64 / 283	−12.1
5	76,427	2470.7	− 2528	−57.3	× 89 / 283	−18
6	76,428	2451.1	− 2552	−100.9	× 59 / 283	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,002	2344.3	− 2436	−91.7	× 73 / 244	−27.4
4	75,003	2397.7	− 2485	−87.3	× 54 / 244	−19.3
5	75,004	2411.8	− 2528	−116.2	× 68 / 244	−32.4
6	75,005	2421.3	− 2552	−130.7	× 49 / 244	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,595	2369.3	− 2436	−66.7	× 74 / 302	−16.3
4	76,596	2399.0	− 2485	−86	× 84 / 302	−23.9
5	76,597	2448.5	− 2528	−79.5	× 62 / 302	−16.3
6	76,598	2451.6	− 2552	−100.4	× 82 / 302	−27.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,577	2360.1	− 2436	−75.9	× 59 / 274	−16.3
4	76,578	2402.2	− 2485	−82.8	× 67 / 274	−20.2
5	76,579	2416.9	− 2528	−111.1	× 88 / 274	−35.7
6	76,580	2477.3	− 2552	−74.7	× 60 / 274	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,562	2345.1	− 2436	−90.9	× 61 / 257	−21.6
4	76,563	2429.5	− 2485	−55.5	× 50 / 257	−10.8
5	76,564	2418.7	− 2528	−109.3	× 61 / 257	−25.9
6	76,565	2441.7	− 2552	−110.3	× 85 / 257	−36.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,225	2381.1	− 2436	−54.9	× 65 / 215	−16.6
4	76,226	2401.1	− 2485	−83.9	× 48 / 215	−18.7
5	76,227	2427.5	− 2528	−100.5	× 45 / 215	−21
6	76,228	2442.4	− 2552	−109.6	× 57 / 215	−29.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −65, −58, −72, −69, −61, −105, −84, −89, −95, −85 → −78.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 44 · 2021→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 10 → average 13.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.1 × 2.66 = 34.8. Upper limit −43.5, lower limit −113.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.