Wicklund Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,400	2408.1	− 2436	−27.9	× 85 / 494	−4.8
4	81,402	2483.3	− 2485	−1.7	× 89 / 494	−0.3
5	81,404	2466.3	− 2528	−61.7	× 77 / 494	−9.6
6	81,406	2524.6	− 2552	−27.4	× 82 / 494	−4.5
7	81,408	2562.8	− 2567	−4.2	× 85 / 494	−0.7
8	81,410	2599.9	− 2586	13.9	× 76 / 494	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,449	2434.5	− 2436	−1.5	× 90 / 501	−0.3
4	75,451	2474.9	− 2485	−10.1	× 77 / 501	−1.6
5	75,452	2499.4	− 2528	−28.6	× 92 / 501	−5.3
6	75,454	2533.5	− 2552	−18.5	× 69 / 501	−2.5
7	75,457	2554.0	− 2567	−13	× 82 / 501	−2.1
8	75,458	2564.5	− 2586	−21.5	× 91 / 501	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,463	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 99 / 534	−0.9
4	77,465	2473.9	− 2485	−11.1	× 99 / 534	−2.1
5	77,467	2512.4	− 2528	−15.6	× 91 / 534	−2.7
6	77,470	2546.2	− 2552	−5.8	× 105 / 534	−1.1
7	77,471	2576.9	− 2567	9.9	× 63 / 534	1.2
8	77,474	2598.1	− 2586	12.1	× 77 / 534	1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,647	2455.8	− 2436	19.8	× 91 / 535	3.4
4	77,649	2478.4	− 2485	−6.6	× 100 / 535	−1.2
5	77,651	2530.4	− 2528	2.4	× 98 / 535	0.4
6	77,653	2576.7	− 2552	24.7	× 91 / 535	4.2
7	77,655	2599.8	− 2567	32.8	× 90 / 535	5.5
8	77,657	2619.7	− 2586	33.7	× 65 / 535	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,169	2466.4	− 2436	30.4	× 76 / 521	4.4
4	78,170	2495.5	− 2485	10.5	× 93 / 521	1.9
5	78,171	2528.6	− 2528	0.6	× 90 / 521	0.1
6	78,172	2571.5	− 2552	19.5	× 100 / 521	3.7
7	78,173	2597.9	− 2567	30.9	× 74 / 521	4.4
8	78,174	2635.5	− 2586	49.5	× 88 / 521	8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,315	2441.9	− 2436	5.9	× 83 / 537	0.9
4	78,316	2495.8	− 2485	10.8	× 102 / 537	2.1
5	78,317	2528.8	− 2528	0.8	× 91 / 537	0.1
6	78,318	2577.5	− 2552	25.5	× 79 / 537	3.8
7	78,319	2605.1	− 2567	38.1	× 88 / 537	6.2
8	78,320	2609.3	− 2586	23.3	× 94 / 537	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,307	2464.1	− 2436	28.1	× 83 / 574	4.1
4	78,308	2509.0	− 2485	24	× 103 / 574	4.3
5	78,309	2523.3	− 2528	−4.7	× 100 / 574	−0.8
6	78,310	2583.6	− 2552	31.6	× 97 / 574	5.3
7	78,311	2618.2	− 2567	51.2	× 96 / 574	8.6
8	78,312	2644.4	− 2586	58.4	× 95 / 574	9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,323	2472.7	− 2436	36.7	× 76 / 503	5.5
4	78,324	2480.3	− 2485	−4.7	× 69 / 503	−0.6
5	78,325	2520.5	− 2528	−7.5	× 72 / 503	−1.1
6	78,326	2551.8	− 2552	−0.2	× 95 / 503	0
7	78,327	2616.9	− 2567	49.9	× 98 / 503	9.7
8	78,328	2604.9	− 2586	18.9	× 93 / 503	3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,991	2472.2	− 2436	36.2	× 70 / 469	5.4
4	77,992	2528.2	− 2485	43.2	× 66 / 469	6.1
5	77,993	2518.6	− 2528	−9.4	× 67 / 469	−1.3
6	77,994	2575.6	− 2552	23.6	× 70 / 469	3.5
7	77,995	2583.5	− 2567	16.5	× 96 / 469	3.4
8	77,996	2614.3	− 2586	28.3	× 100 / 469	6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −18, −16, −4, 16, 23, 17, 31, 17, 23 → 9.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 20 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit 36.8, lower limit −17.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.