Tom Hawkins Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,911	2424.1	− 2436	−11.9	× 85 / 571	−1.8
4	78,912	2439.0	− 2485	−46	× 97 / 571	−7.8
5	78,915	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 101 / 571	−9.2
6	78,916	2532.9	− 2552	−19.1	× 93 / 571	−3.1
7	78,919	2548.5	− 2567	−18.5	× 97 / 571	−3.1
8	78,920	2551.9	− 2586	−34.1	× 98 / 571	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,098	2457.4	− 2436	21.4	× 69 / 538	2.7
4	73,101	2480.8	− 2485	−4.2	× 84 / 538	−0.7
5	73,102	2465.6	− 2528	−62.4	× 102 / 538	−11.8
6	73,105	2529.6	− 2552	−22.4	× 94 / 538	−3.9
7	73,106	2553.7	− 2567	−13.3	× 92 / 538	−2.3
8	73,108	2564.9	− 2586	−21.1	× 97 / 538	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,066	2446.6	− 2436	10.6	× 70 / 508	1.5
4	75,067	2485.0	− 2485	0	× 86 / 508	0
5	75,069	2489.6	− 2528	−38.4	× 86 / 508	−6.5
6	75,071	2537.9	− 2552	−14.1	× 86 / 508	−2.4
7	75,074	2543.5	− 2567	−23.5	× 90 / 508	−4.2
8	75,075	2549.1	− 2586	−36.9	× 90 / 508	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,249	2411.7	− 2436	−24.3	× 71 / 502	−3.4
4	75,251	2490.5	− 2485	5.5	× 75 / 502	0.8
5	75,253	2476.3	− 2528	−51.7	× 84 / 502	−8.7
6	75,255	2538.7	− 2552	−13.3	× 93 / 502	−2.5
7	75,257	2552.4	− 2567	−14.6	× 88 / 502	−2.6
8	75,259	2569.7	− 2586	−16.3	× 91 / 502	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,783	2400.6	− 2436	−35.4	× 76 / 499	−5.4
4	75,784	2492.0	− 2485	7	× 78 / 499	1.1
5	75,785	2491.3	− 2528	−36.7	× 72 / 499	−5.3
6	75,786	2532.1	− 2552	−19.9	× 88 / 499	−3.5
7	75,787	2529.1	− 2567	−37.9	× 94 / 499	−7.1
8	75,788	2560.1	− 2586	−25.9	× 91 / 499	−4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,338	2394.1	− 2436	−41.9	× 77 / 468	−6.9
4	74,339	2452.8	− 2485	−32.2	× 65 / 468	−4.5
5	74,340	2455.6	− 2528	−72.4	× 84 / 468	−13
6	74,341	2502.1	− 2552	−49.9	× 81 / 468	−8.6
7	74,342	2504.5	− 2567	−62.5	× 79 / 468	−10.6
8	74,343	2500.5	− 2586	−85.5	× 82 / 468	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,923	2419.5	− 2436	−16.5	× 72 / 500	−2.4
4	75,924	2486.1	− 2485	1.1	× 103 / 500	0.2
5	75,925	2465.5	− 2528	−62.5	× 64 / 500	−8
6	75,926	2494.2	− 2552	−57.8	× 89 / 500	−10.3
7	75,927	2527.8	− 2567	−39.2	× 86 / 500	−6.7
8	75,928	2529.2	− 2586	−56.8	× 86 / 500	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,907	2405.8	− 2436	−30.2	× 83 / 525	−4.8
4	75,908	2521.2	− 2485	36.2	× 90 / 525	6.2
5	75,909	2492.3	− 2528	−35.7	× 99 / 525	−6.7
6	75,910	2516.7	− 2552	−35.3	× 68 / 525	−4.6
7	75,911	2524.9	− 2567	−42.1	× 106 / 525	−8.5
8	75,912	2531.4	− 2586	−54.6	× 79 / 525	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,906	2418.6	− 2436	−17.4	× 87 / 575	−2.6
4	75,907	2495.1	− 2485	10.1	× 101 / 575	1.8
5	75,908	2491.0	− 2528	−37	× 91 / 575	−5.9
6	75,909	2519.5	− 2552	−32.5	× 110 / 575	−6.2
7	75,910	2535.5	− 2567	−31.5	× 88 / 575	−4.8
8	75,911	2499.1	− 2586	−86.9	× 98 / 575	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,579	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 78 / 510	1.8
4	75,580	2481.3	− 2485	−3.7	× 81 / 510	−0.6
5	75,581	2463.2	− 2528	−64.8	× 87 / 510	−11.1
6	75,582	2503.9	− 2552	−48.1	× 73 / 510	−6.9
7	75,583	2529.3	− 2567	−37.7	× 96 / 510	−7.1
8	75,584	2531.1	− 2586	−54.9	× 95 / 510	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −31, −20, −18, −19, −25, −59, −37, −27, −33, −34 → −30.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 34 · 2021→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 10.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.3 × 2.66 = 27.4. Upper limit −2.9, lower limit −57.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.