Riley/New Dawn: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,648	2305.4	− 2436	−130.6	× 5 / 59	−11.1
4	74,650	2374.1	− 2485	−110.9	× 7 / 59	−13.2
6	74,654	2387.2	− 2552	−164.8	× 6 / 59	−16.8
7	74,656	2364.1	− 2567	−202.9	× 15 / 59	−51.6
8	74,658	2428.0	− 2586	−158	× 12 / 59	−32.1
11	74,660	2468.7	− 2628	−159.3	× 14 / 59	−37.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−163

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	69,361	2403.4	− 2552	−148.6	× 10 / 52	−28.6
7	69,363	2409.5	− 2567	−157.5	× 11 / 52	−33.3
8	69,365	2431.2	− 2586	−154.8	× 17 / 52	−50.6
11	69,366	2419.4	− 2628	−208.6	× 14 / 52	−56.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−169

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,187	2293.6	− 2436	−142.4	× 13 / 76	−24.4
4	71,190	2361.0	− 2485	−124	× 12 / 76	−19.6
5	71,192	2368.2	− 2528	−159.8	× 13 / 76	−27.3
7	71,195	2437.1	− 2567	−129.9	× 13 / 76	−22.2
8	71,198	2377.4	− 2586	−208.6	× 13 / 76	−35.7
11	71,200	2466.5	− 2628	−161.5	× 12 / 76	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−155

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	71,334	2356.8	− 2485	−128.2	× 12 / 66	−23.3
6	71,338	2328.1	− 2552	−223.9	× 12 / 66	−40.7
7	71,341	2432.6	− 2567	−134.4	× 16 / 66	−32.6
8	71,342	2387.0	− 2586	−199	× 13 / 66	−39.2
11	71,345	2407.5	− 2628	−220.5	× 13 / 66	−43.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−179

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	71,826	2409.1	− 2528	−118.9	× 12 / 41	−34.8
7	71,828	2394.8	− 2567	−172.2	× 13 / 41	−54.6
11	71,830	2445.8	− 2628	−182.2	× 16 / 41	−71.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−161

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	71,911	2386.2	− 2485	−98.8	× 13 / 24	−53.5
7	71,914	2436.8	− 2567	−130.2	× 11 / 24	−59.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,904	2348.9	− 2436	−87.1	× 11 / 63	−15.2
4	71,905	2356.0	− 2485	−129	× 12 / 63	−24.6
6	71,907	2552.9	− 2552	0.9	× 13 / 63	0.2
8	71,909	2356.1	− 2586	−229.9	× 11 / 63	−40.1
11	71,910	2455.1	− 2628	−172.9	× 16 / 63	−43.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	71,888	2378.9	− 2528	−149.1	× 17 / 71	−35.7
6	71,889	2407.1	− 2552	−144.9	× 13 / 71	−26.5
7	71,890	2453.1	− 2567	−113.9	× 14 / 71	−22.5
8	71,891	2409.8	− 2586	−176.2	× 12 / 71	−29.8
11	71,892	2421.2	− 2628	−206.8	× 15 / 71	−43.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−158

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	71,603	2381.5	− 2485	−103.5	× 13 / 54	−24.9
6	71,605	2485.0	− 2552	−67	× 11 / 54	−13.6
7	71,606	2388.4	− 2567	−178.6	× 16 / 54	−52.9
11	71,608	2415.2	− 2628	−212.8	× 14 / 54	−55.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−147

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −163, −169, −155, −179, −161, −113, −124, −158, −147 → −152.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 24 · 2018→2019: 18 · 2019→2022: 48 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 34 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 20.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20.8 × 2.66 = 55.3. Upper limit −96.8, lower limit −207.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.