Rancho Santa Fe Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,363	2522.0	− 2436	86	× 76 / 457	14.3
4	73,364	2532.8	− 2485	47.8	× 65 / 457	6.8
5	73,367	2595.0	− 2528	67	× 88 / 457	12.9
6	73,368	2587.8	− 2552	35.8	× 78 / 457	6.1
7	73,371	2610.5	− 2567	43.5	× 72 / 457	6.9
8	73,372	2636.8	− 2586	50.8	× 78 / 457	8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						56

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,044	2517.4	− 2436	81.4	× 75 / 462	13.2
4	68,046	2559.2	− 2485	74.2	× 82 / 462	13.2
5	68,048	2575.9	− 2528	47.9	× 77 / 462	8
6	68,050	2643.0	− 2552	91	× 92 / 462	18.1
7	68,052	2637.3	− 2567	70.3	× 61 / 462	9.3
8	68,055	2682.7	− 2586	96.7	× 75 / 462	15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						77

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,862	2522.8	− 2436	86.8	× 70 / 438	13.9
4	69,863	2557.8	− 2485	72.8	× 74 / 438	12.3
5	69,865	2588.3	− 2528	60.3	× 81 / 438	11.2
6	69,867	2598.8	− 2552	46.8	× 72 / 438	7.7
7	69,869	2666.4	− 2567	99.4	× 82 / 438	18.6
8	69,871	2649.9	− 2586	63.9	× 59 / 438	8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						72

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,018	2532.0	− 2436	96	× 72 / 461	15
4	70,020	2563.5	− 2485	78.5	× 79 / 461	13.5
5	70,022	2565.7	− 2528	37.7	× 78 / 461	6.4
6	70,024	2636.2	− 2552	84.2	× 76 / 461	13.9
7	70,026	2612.3	− 2567	45.3	× 76 / 461	7.5
8	70,028	2686.8	− 2586	100.8	× 80 / 461	17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						74

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,539	2531.0	− 2436	95	× 62 / 427	13.8
4	70,540	2566.5	− 2485	81.5	× 75 / 427	14.3
5	70,541	2601.9	− 2528	73.9	× 79 / 427	13.7
6	70,542	2603.3	− 2552	51.3	× 72 / 427	8.7
7	70,543	2660.7	− 2567	93.7	× 67 / 427	14.7
8	70,544	2654.3	− 2586	68.3	× 72 / 427	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						77

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,068	2523.8	− 2436	87.8	× 69 / 413	14.7
4	69,069	2578.6	− 2485	93.6	× 57 / 413	12.9
5	69,070	2582.8	− 2528	54.8	× 75 / 413	10
6	69,071	2627.2	− 2552	75.2	× 75 / 413	13.7
7	69,072	2626.2	− 2567	59.2	× 70 / 413	10
8	69,073	2591.4	− 2586	5.4	× 67 / 413	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						62

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,631	2510.4	− 2436	74.4	× 58 / 425	10.2
4	70,632	2580.2	− 2485	95.2	× 75 / 425	16.8
5	70,633	2584.9	− 2528	56.9	× 74 / 425	9.9
6	70,634	2637.1	− 2552	85.1	× 76 / 425	15.2
7	70,635	2642.6	− 2567	75.6	× 73 / 425	13
8	70,636	2644.6	− 2586	58.6	× 69 / 425	9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						75

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,637	2534.1	− 2436	98.1	× 55 / 393	13.7
4	70,638	2574.8	− 2485	89.8	× 58 / 393	13.3
5	70,639	2609.2	− 2528	81.2	× 73 / 393	15.1
6	70,640	2622.4	− 2552	70.4	× 66 / 393	11.8
7	70,641	2631.0	− 2567	64	× 71 / 393	11.6
8	70,642	2696.5	− 2586	110.5	× 70 / 393	19.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						85

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,619	2528.1	− 2436	92.1	× 62 / 375	15.2
4	70,620	2593.9	− 2485	108.9	× 52 / 375	15.1
5	70,621	2599.4	− 2528	71.4	× 66 / 375	12.6
6	70,622	2625.6	− 2552	73.6	× 73 / 375	14.3
7	70,623	2623.3	− 2567	56.3	× 60 / 375	9
8	70,624	2655.5	− 2586	69.5	× 62 / 375	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						78

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,333	2514.7	− 2436	78.7	× 63 / 373	13.3
4	70,334	2581.6	− 2485	96.6	× 64 / 373	16.6
5	70,335	2608.9	− 2528	80.9	× 56 / 373	12.1
6	70,336	2616.5	− 2552	64.5	× 61 / 373	10.5
7	70,337	2674.9	− 2567	107.9	× 71 / 373	20.5
8	70,338	2661.2	− 2586	75.2	× 58 / 373	11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						85

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 56, 77, 72, 74, 77, 62, 75, 85, 78, 85 → 74.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 15 · 2021→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 9.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.2 × 2.66 = 24.5. Upper limit 98.6, lower limit 49.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.