Poway Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,849	2474.6	− 2436	38.6	× 2726 / 18361	5.7
4	72,851	2524.4	− 2485	39.4	× 2726 / 18361	5.8
5	72,853	2551.6	− 2528	23.6	× 2681 / 18361	3.4
6	72,855	2571.4	− 2552	19.4	× 2651 / 18361	2.8
7	72,857	2597.3	− 2567	30.3	× 2634 / 18361	4.3
8	72,859	2608.9	− 2586	22.9	× 2583 / 18361	3.2
11	72,861	2651.8	− 2628	23.8	× 2360 / 18361	3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						28

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,631	2480.8	− 2436	44.8	× 2615 / 18719	6.3
4	67,632	2527.4	− 2485	42.4	× 2707 / 18719	6.1
5	67,635	2562.9	− 2528	34.9	× 2757 / 18719	5.1
6	67,637	2568.3	− 2552	16.3	× 2688 / 18719	2.3
7	67,638	2602.4	− 2567	35.4	× 2639 / 18719	5
8	67,640	2633.0	− 2586	47	× 2648 / 18719	6.6
11	67,643	2656.6	− 2628	28.6	× 2665 / 18719	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						36

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,414	2482.9	− 2436	46.9	× 2604 / 18676	6.5
4	69,416	2527.5	− 2485	42.5	× 2651 / 18676	6
5	69,418	2561.3	− 2528	33.3	× 2751 / 18676	4.9
6	69,419	2576.4	− 2552	24.4	× 2763 / 18676	3.6
7	69,422	2591.1	− 2567	24.1	× 2693 / 18676	3.5
8	69,424	2629.6	− 2586	43.6	× 2655 / 18676	6.2
11	69,425	2655.8	− 2628	27.8	× 2559 / 18676	3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,576	2485.4	− 2436	49.4	× 2511 / 18784	6.6
4	69,578	2531.8	− 2485	46.8	× 2659 / 18784	6.6
5	69,580	2563.3	− 2528	35.3	× 2673 / 18784	5
6	69,582	2575.4	− 2552	23.4	× 2847 / 18784	3.5
7	69,584	2603.2	− 2567	36.2	× 2801 / 18784	5.4
8	69,586	2621.0	− 2586	35	× 2689 / 18784	5
11	69,588	2645.3	− 2628	17.3	× 2604 / 18784	2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,102	2487.3	− 2436	51.3	× 2543 / 18714	7
4	70,103	2535.9	− 2485	50.9	× 2517 / 18714	6.8
5	70,104	2572.0	− 2528	44	× 2671 / 18714	6.3
6	70,105	2577.4	− 2552	25.4	× 2721 / 18714	3.7
7	70,106	2602.1	− 2567	35.1	× 2832 / 18714	5.3
8	70,107	2636.3	− 2586	50.3	× 2760 / 18714	7.4
11	70,108	2675.1	− 2628	47.1	× 2670 / 18714	6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						43

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,196	2489.7	− 2436	53.7	× 2489 / 17497	7.6
4	70,197	2536.3	− 2485	51.3	× 2466 / 17497	7.2
5	70,198	2560.6	− 2528	32.6	× 2576 / 17497	4.8
6	70,199	2572.6	− 2552	20.6	× 2473 / 17497	2.9
7	70,200	2594.4	− 2567	27.4	× 2454 / 17497	3.8
8	70,201	2613.6	− 2586	27.6	× 2576 / 17497	4.1
11	70,202	2670.6	− 2628	42.6	× 2463 / 17497	6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						36

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,200	2489.2	− 2436	53.2	× 2493 / 17542	7.6
4	70,201	2536.5	− 2485	51.5	× 2547 / 17542	7.5
5	70,202	2566.5	− 2528	38.5	× 2502 / 17542	5.5
6	70,203	2575.1	− 2552	23.1	× 2519 / 17542	3.3
7	70,204	2596.6	− 2567	29.6	× 2454 / 17542	4.1
8	70,205	2619.6	− 2586	33.6	× 2409 / 17542	4.6
11	70,206	2672.6	− 2628	44.6	× 2618 / 17542	6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						39

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,184	2487.2	− 2436	51.2	× 2527 / 17518	7.4
4	70,185	2535.3	− 2485	50.3	× 2537 / 17518	7.3
5	70,186	2561.0	− 2528	33	× 2571 / 17518	4.8
6	70,187	2572.4	− 2552	20.4	× 2486 / 17518	2.9
7	70,188	2598.2	− 2567	31.2	× 2453 / 17518	4.4
8	70,189	2622.7	− 2586	36.7	× 2382 / 17518	5
11	70,190	2660.6	− 2628	32.6	× 2562 / 17518	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,896	2490.3	− 2436	54.3	× 2461 / 17491	7.6
4	69,897	2541.5	− 2485	56.5	× 2536 / 17491	8.2
5	69,898	2561.8	− 2528	33.8	× 2558 / 17491	4.9
6	69,899	2577.6	− 2552	25.6	× 2496 / 17491	3.7
7	69,900	2597.9	− 2567	30.9	× 2454 / 17491	4.3
8	69,901	2629.1	− 2586	43.1	× 2451 / 17491	6
11	69,902	2662.1	− 2628	34.1	× 2535 / 17491	4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						40

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 28, 36, 35, 35, 43, 36, 39, 37, 40 → 36.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4 × 2.66 = 10.6. Upper limit 47.2, lower limit 26.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.