Stuart Mesa Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,037	2421.7	− 2436	−14.3	× 57 / 231	−3.5
4	77,039	2429.4	− 2485	−55.6	× 54 / 231	−13
5	77,041	2484.4	− 2528	−43.6	× 38 / 231	−7.2
6	77,043	2537.7	− 2552	−14.3	× 29 / 231	−1.8
7	77,045	2532.6	− 2567	−34.4	× 31 / 231	−4.6
8	77,047	2595.2	− 2586	9.2	× 22 / 231	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,373	2420.3	− 2436	−15.7	× 61 / 236	−4.1
4	71,374	2454.7	− 2485	−30.3	× 53 / 236	−6.8
5	71,377	2476.3	− 2528	−51.7	× 43 / 236	−9.4
6	71,379	2516.8	− 2552	−35.2	× 27 / 236	−4
7	71,381	2584.9	− 2567	17.9	× 26 / 236	2
8	71,382	2582.8	− 2586	−3.2	× 26 / 236	−0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,248	2409.5	− 2436	−26.5	× 60 / 220	−7.2
4	73,249	2474.0	− 2485	−11	× 46 / 220	−2.3
5	73,252	2502.2	− 2528	−25.8	× 32 / 220	−3.8
6	73,253	2527.9	− 2552	−24.1	× 35 / 220	−3.8
7	73,255	2576.7	− 2567	9.7	× 21 / 220	0.9
8	73,257	2603.0	− 2586	17	× 26 / 220	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,385	2420.5	− 2436	−15.5	× 75 / 286	−4.1
4	73,386	2468.0	− 2485	−17	× 66 / 286	−3.9
5	73,389	2497.8	− 2528	−30.2	× 50 / 286	−5.3
6	73,390	2508.5	− 2552	−43.5	× 32 / 286	−4.9
7	73,393	2543.6	− 2567	−23.4	× 35 / 286	−2.9
8	73,394	2592.9	− 2586	6.9	× 28 / 286	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,847	2418.1	− 2436	−17.9	× 62 / 288	−3.9
4	73,848	2455.0	− 2485	−30	× 60 / 288	−6.3
5	73,849	2483.2	− 2528	−44.8	× 60 / 288	−9.3
6	73,850	2544.4	− 2552	−7.6	× 43 / 288	−1.1
7	73,851	2578.7	− 2567	11.7	× 27 / 288	1.1
8	73,852	2591.1	− 2586	5.1	× 36 / 288	0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,997	2393.1	− 2436	−42.9	× 54 / 273	−8.5
4	73,998	2492.4	− 2485	7.4	× 43 / 273	1.2
5	73,999	2506.2	− 2528	−21.8	× 62 / 273	−5
6	74,000	2500.5	− 2552	−51.5	× 39 / 273	−7.4
7	74,001	2530.5	− 2567	−36.5	× 42 / 273	−5.6
8	74,002	2540.6	− 2586	−45.4	× 33 / 273	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,979	2410.5	− 2436	−25.5	× 53 / 271	−5
4	73,980	2457.3	− 2485	−27.7	× 58 / 271	−5.9
5	73,981	2509.9	− 2528	−18.1	× 41 / 271	−2.7
6	73,982	2495.5	− 2552	−56.5	× 51 / 271	−10.6
7	73,983	2493.2	− 2567	−73.8	× 34 / 271	−9.3
8	73,984	2510.8	− 2586	−75.2	× 34 / 271	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,953	2396.5	− 2436	−39.5	× 52 / 272	−7.6
4	73,954	2441.5	− 2485	−43.5	× 46 / 272	−7.4
5	73,955	2497.2	− 2528	−30.8	× 56 / 272	−6.3
6	73,956	2479.5	− 2552	−72.5	× 34 / 272	−9.1
7	73,957	2539.1	− 2567	−27.9	× 51 / 272	−5.2
8	73,958	2506.9	− 2586	−79.1	× 33 / 272	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,627	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 60 / 292	−5.7
4	73,628	2425.7	− 2485	−59.3	× 44 / 292	−8.9
5	73,629	2484.3	− 2528	−43.7	× 45 / 292	−6.7
6	73,630	2507.8	− 2552	−44.2	× 59 / 292	−8.9
7	73,631	2510.5	− 2567	−56.5	× 33 / 292	−6.4
8	73,632	2543.0	− 2586	−43	× 51 / 292	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −29, −23, −14, −20, −19, −31, −43, −45, −44 → −29.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 6.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.1 × 2.66 = 16.2. Upper limit −13.6, lower limit −46.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.