North Terrace Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,937	2413.6	− 2436	−22.4	× 67 / 349	−4.3
4	76,938	2465.3	− 2485	−19.7	× 76 / 349	−4.3
5	76,941	2523.6	− 2528	−4.4	× 63 / 349	−0.8
6	76,942	2472.3	− 2552	−79.7	× 61 / 349	−13.9
7	76,945	2549.7	− 2567	−17.3	× 49 / 349	−2.4
8	76,946	2578.2	− 2586	−7.8	× 33 / 349	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,272	2432.4	− 2436	−3.6	× 99 / 390	−0.9
4	71,274	2471.7	− 2485	−13.3	× 68 / 390	−2.3
5	71,276	2526.2	− 2528	−1.8	× 69 / 390	−0.3
6	71,279	2513.0	− 2552	−39	× 57 / 390	−5.7
7	71,280	2544.7	− 2567	−22.3	× 59 / 390	−3.4
8	71,282	2588.1	− 2586	2.1	× 38 / 390	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,147	2441.4	− 2436	5.4	× 74 / 397	1
4	73,150	2461.5	− 2485	−23.5	× 92 / 397	−5.4
5	73,151	2530.3	− 2528	2.3	× 69 / 397	0.4
6	73,153	2535.7	− 2552	−16.3	× 72 / 397	−3
7	73,156	2574.5	− 2567	7.5	× 42 / 397	0.8
8	73,157	2594.4	− 2586	8.4	× 48 / 397	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,285	2448.4	− 2436	12.4	× 111 / 433	3.2
4	73,286	2469.1	− 2485	−15.9	× 69 / 433	−2.5
5	73,289	2520.8	− 2528	−7.2	× 87 / 433	−1.4
6	73,290	2540.9	− 2552	−11.1	× 67 / 433	−1.7
7	73,293	2542.8	− 2567	−24.2	× 62 / 433	−3.5
8	73,294	2591.3	− 2586	5.3	× 37 / 433	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,747	2438.8	− 2436	2.8	× 112 / 481	0.7
4	73,748	2490.0	− 2485	5	× 104 / 481	1.1
5	73,749	2528.3	− 2528	0.3	× 72 / 481	0
6	73,750	2551.3	− 2552	−0.7	× 88 / 481	−0.1
7	73,751	2580.6	− 2567	13.6	× 54 / 481	1.5
8	73,752	2589.1	− 2586	3.1	× 51 / 481	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,905	2430.0	− 2436	−6	× 69 / 399	−1
4	73,906	2476.3	− 2485	−8.7	× 80 / 399	−1.7
5	73,907	2502.0	− 2528	−26	× 83 / 399	−5.4
6	73,908	2525.6	− 2552	−26.4	× 67 / 399	−4.4
7	73,909	2546.8	− 2567	−20.2	× 57 / 399	−2.9
8	73,910	2565.9	− 2586	−20.1	× 43 / 399	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,887	2426.9	− 2436	−9.1	× 88 / 424	−1.9
4	73,888	2486.1	− 2485	1.1	× 72 / 424	0.2
5	73,889	2519.3	− 2528	−8.7	× 74 / 424	−1.5
6	73,890	2531.5	− 2552	−20.5	× 73 / 424	−3.5
7	73,891	2531.9	− 2567	−35.1	× 61 / 424	−5
8	73,892	2526.3	− 2586	−59.7	× 56 / 424	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,869	2418.3	− 2436	−17.7	× 84 / 404	−3.7
4	73,870	2468.9	− 2485	−16.1	× 85 / 404	−3.4
5	73,871	2531.1	− 2528	3.1	× 67 / 404	0.5
6	73,872	2523.6	− 2552	−28.4	× 64 / 404	−4.5
7	73,873	2520.9	− 2567	−46.1	× 58 / 404	−6.6
8	73,874	2562.7	− 2586	−23.3	× 46 / 404	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,543	2436.8	− 2436	0.8	× 81 / 394	0.2
4	73,544	2460.8	− 2485	−24.2	× 66 / 394	−4.1
5	73,545	2519.9	− 2528	−8.1	× 73 / 394	−1.5
6	73,546	2558.9	− 2552	6.9	× 62 / 394	1.1
7	73,547	2533.7	− 2567	−33.3	× 51 / 394	−4.3
8	73,548	2552.8	− 2586	−33.2	× 61 / 394	−5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −26, −12, −5, −6, 4, −18, −20, −20, −14 → −13
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit 7.7, lower limit −33.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.