Palmer Way: math · Schoolio

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,822	2400.1	− 2436	−35.9	× 71 / 334	−7.6
4	72,824	2433.9	− 2485	−51.1	× 87 / 334	−13.3
5	72,826	2488.2	− 2528	−39.8	× 86 / 334	−10.2
6	72,828	2532.4	− 2552	−19.6	× 90 / 334	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,606	2453.8	− 2436	17.8	× 84 / 339	4.4
4	67,608	2449.7	− 2485	−35.3	× 82 / 339	−8.5
5	67,611	2452.9	− 2528	−75.1	× 94 / 339	−20.8
6	67,612	2523.9	− 2552	−28.1	× 79 / 339	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,394	2451.4	− 2436	15.4	× 71 / 333	3.3
4	69,396	2480.1	− 2485	−4.9	× 91 / 333	−1.3
5	69,397	2465.0	− 2528	−63	× 82 / 333	−15.5
6	69,399	2491.5	− 2552	−60.5	× 89 / 333	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,557	2468.3	− 2436	32.3	× 71 / 327	7
4	69,559	2461.4	− 2485	−23.6	× 82 / 327	−5.9
5	69,561	2484.7	− 2528	−43.3	× 87 / 327	−11.5
6	69,563	2502.0	− 2552	−50	× 87 / 327	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,079	2461.6	− 2436	25.6	× 79 / 318	6.4
4	70,080	2481.9	− 2485	−3.1	× 76 / 318	−0.7
5	70,081	2456.2	− 2528	−71.8	× 76 / 318	−17.2
6	70,082	2523.6	− 2552	−28.4	× 87 / 318	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,173	2387.6	− 2436	−48.4	× 61 / 275	−10.7
4	70,174	2443.1	− 2485	−41.9	× 58 / 275	−8.8
5	70,175	2454.6	− 2528	−73.4	× 77 / 275	−20.6
6	70,176	2489.1	− 2552	−62.9	× 79 / 275	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,177	2387.2	− 2436	−48.8	× 50 / 228	−10.7
4	70,178	2469.8	− 2485	−15.2	× 59 / 228	−3.9
5	70,179	2461.1	− 2528	−66.9	× 47 / 228	−13.8
6	70,180	2485.4	− 2552	−66.6	× 72 / 228	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,161	2429.2	− 2436	−6.8	× 59 / 221	−1.8
4	70,162	2435.4	− 2485	−49.6	× 52 / 221	−11.7
5	70,163	2452.2	− 2528	−75.8	× 60 / 221	−20.6
6	70,164	2471.3	− 2552	−80.7	× 50 / 221	−18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,873	2431.0	− 2436	−5	× 42 / 213	−1
4	69,874	2491.0	− 2485	6	× 56 / 213	1.6
5	69,875	2443.8	− 2528	−84.2	× 53 / 213	−21
6	69,876	2494.4	− 2552	−57.6	× 62 / 213	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −36, −32, −30, −24, −19, −58, −49, −52, −37 → −37.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 39 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 10.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.4 × 2.66 = 27.7. Upper limit −9.7, lower limit −65.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.