Vermont Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,236	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 121 / 350	−12.1
4	68,238	2433.0	− 2485	−52	× 116 / 350	−17.2
5	68,240	2449.8	− 2528	−78.2	× 113 / 350	−25.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,240	2422.7	− 2436	−13.3	× 116 / 363	−4.3
4	63,242	2454.0	− 2485	−31	× 121 / 363	−10.3
5	63,244	2460.2	− 2528	−67.8	× 126 / 363	−23.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,028	2436.9	− 2436	0.9	× 113 / 459	0.2
4	65,029	2446.9	− 2485	−38.1	× 104 / 459	−8.6
5	65,032	2485.1	− 2528	−42.9	× 122 / 459	−11.4
6	65,033	2502.3	− 2552	−49.7	× 120 / 459	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,118	2451.0	− 2436	15	× 102 / 427	3.6
4	65,120	2456.1	− 2485	−28.9	× 110 / 427	−7.4
5	65,121	2473.9	− 2528	−54.1	× 97 / 427	−12.3
6	65,124	2505.1	− 2552	−46.9	× 118 / 427	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,487	2449.0	− 2436	13	× 101 / 401	3.3
4	65,488	2463.4	− 2485	−21.6	× 97 / 401	−5.2
5	65,489	2470.5	− 2528	−57.5	× 105 / 401	−15.1
6	65,490	2503.2	− 2552	−48.8	× 98 / 401	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,578	2399.6	− 2436	−36.4	× 88 / 365	−8.8
4	65,579	2423.3	− 2485	−61.7	× 82 / 365	−13.9
5	65,580	2428.8	− 2528	−99.2	× 92 / 365	−25
6	65,581	2483.0	− 2552	−69	× 103 / 365	−19.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,583	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 100 / 367	−2.6
4	65,584	2434.4	− 2485	−50.6	× 89 / 367	−12.3
5	65,585	2452.7	− 2528	−75.3	× 91 / 367	−18.7
6	65,586	2472.0	− 2552	−80	× 87 / 367	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,551	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 90 / 374	−4.2
4	65,552	2459.2	− 2485	−25.8	× 95 / 374	−6.6
5	65,553	2427.6	− 2528	−100.4	× 93 / 374	−25
6	65,554	2473.9	− 2552	−78.1	× 96 / 374	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,311	2429.0	− 2436	−7	× 97 / 381	−1.8
4	65,312	2432.1	− 2485	−52.9	× 91 / 381	−12.6
5	65,313	2431.4	− 2528	−96.6	× 98 / 381	−24.8
6	65,314	2456.5	− 2552	−95.5	× 95 / 381	−23.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −55, −38, −33, −29, −29, −67, −53, −56, −63 → −47
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2022: 38 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 11
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11 × 2.66 = 29.3. Upper limit −17.7, lower limit −76.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.