Roger Anton Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,615	2361.7	− 2436	−74.3	× 93 / 378	−18.3
4	67,617	2414.5	− 2485	−70.5	× 98 / 378	−18.3
5	67,619	2415.5	− 2528	−112.5	× 108 / 378	−32.1
6	67,621	2441.6	− 2552	−110.4	× 79 / 378	−23.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,659	2376.8	− 2436	−59.2	× 94 / 370	−15
4	62,662	2429.9	− 2485	−55.1	× 95 / 370	−14.1
5	62,663	2450.9	− 2528	−77.1	× 90 / 370	−18.8
6	62,665	2451.8	− 2552	−100.2	× 91 / 370	−24.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,454	2378.5	− 2436	−57.5	× 116 / 394	−16.9
4	64,456	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 86 / 394	−15.1
5	64,458	2462.1	− 2528	−65.9	× 99 / 394	−16.6
6	64,460	2504.0	− 2552	−48	× 93 / 394	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,561	2400.2	− 2436	−35.8	× 91 / 370	−8.8
4	64,562	2438.9	− 2485	−46.1	× 97 / 370	−12.1
5	64,565	2438.9	− 2528	−89.1	× 88 / 370	−21.2
6	64,566	2488.7	− 2552	−63.3	× 94 / 370	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,929	2403.4	− 2436	−32.6	× 92 / 360	−8.3
4	64,930	2443.3	− 2485	−41.7	× 81 / 360	−9.4
5	64,931	2445.6	− 2528	−82.4	× 98 / 360	−22.4
6	64,932	2461.7	− 2552	−90.3	× 89 / 360	−22.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,014	2374.8	− 2436	−61.2	× 85 / 337	−15.4
4	65,015	2363.4	− 2485	−121.6	× 84 / 337	−30.3
5	65,016	2425.7	− 2528	−102.3	× 87 / 337	−26.4
6	65,017	2446.3	− 2552	−105.7	× 81 / 337	−25.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,009	2360.6	− 2436	−75.4	× 86 / 346	−18.7
4	65,010	2406.0	− 2485	−79	× 89 / 346	−20.3
5	65,011	2391.7	− 2528	−136.3	× 91 / 346	−35.8
6	65,012	2425.3	− 2552	−126.7	× 80 / 346	−29.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,975	2380.2	− 2436	−55.8	× 82 / 346	−13.2
4	64,976	2415.4	− 2485	−69.6	× 88 / 346	−17.7
5	64,977	2427.6	− 2528	−100.4	× 89 / 346	−25.8
6	64,978	2419.7	− 2552	−132.3	× 87 / 346	−33.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,733	2385.8	− 2436	−50.2	× 85 / 349	−12.2
4	64,734	2433.9	− 2485	−51.1	× 79 / 349	−11.6
5	64,735	2426.7	− 2528	−101.3	× 91 / 349	−26.4
6	64,736	2481.0	− 2552	−71	× 94 / 349	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −92, −73, −60, −58, −62, −98, −104, −90, −69 → −78.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 19 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 36 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 21 → average 14.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.4 × 2.66 = 38.3. Upper limit −40.1, lower limit −116.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.