Monterey Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,126	2389.6	− 2436	−46.4	× 89 / 354	−11.7
4	68,128	2414.8	− 2485	−70.2	× 97 / 354	−19.2
5	68,130	2443.9	− 2528	−84.1	× 95 / 354	−22.6
6	68,132	2450.9	− 2552	−101.1	× 73 / 354	−20.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,127	2392.1	− 2436	−43.9	× 71 / 331	−9.4
4	63,130	2411.6	− 2485	−73.4	× 88 / 331	−19.5
5	63,131	2418.2	− 2528	−109.8	× 83 / 331	−27.5
6	63,134	2425.6	− 2552	−126.4	× 89 / 331	−34
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,915	2372.2	− 2436	−63.8	× 76 / 324	−15
4	64,918	2403.4	− 2485	−81.6	× 83 / 324	−20.9
5	64,920	2392.9	− 2528	−135.1	× 89 / 324	−37.1
6	64,922	2428.3	− 2552	−123.7	× 76 / 324	−29
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,006	2378.9	− 2436	−57.1	× 80 / 328	−13.9
4	65,007	2393.4	− 2485	−91.6	× 92 / 328	−25.7
5	65,010	2400.3	− 2528	−127.7	× 82 / 328	−31.9
6	65,011	2425.7	− 2552	−126.3	× 74 / 328	−28.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,375	2396.8	− 2436	−39.2	× 72 / 296	−9.5
4	65,376	2411.0	− 2485	−74	× 71 / 296	−17.8
5	65,377	2433.7	− 2528	−94.3	× 86 / 296	−27.4
6	65,378	2436.8	− 2552	−115.2	× 67 / 296	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,466	2355.4	− 2436	−80.6	× 45 / 212	−17.1
4	65,467	2367.9	− 2485	−117.1	× 52 / 212	−28.7
5	65,468	2402.4	− 2528	−125.6	× 57 / 212	−33.8
6	65,469	2419.6	− 2552	−132.4	× 58 / 212	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,471	2339.1	− 2436	−96.9	× 54 / 206	−25.4
4	65,472	2382.6	− 2485	−102.4	× 49 / 206	−24.4
5	65,473	2389.0	− 2528	−139	× 54 / 206	−36.4
6	65,474	2413.2	− 2552	−138.8	× 49 / 206	−33
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,439	2338.1	− 2436	−97.9	× 51 / 187	−26.7
4	65,440	2376.2	− 2485	−108.8	× 54 / 187	−31.4
5	65,441	2397.0	− 2528	−131	× 45 / 187	−31.5
6	65,442	2389.5	− 2552	−162.5	× 37 / 187	−32.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,199	2356.3	− 2436	−79.7	× 48 / 193	−19.8
4	65,200	2391.9	− 2485	−93.1	× 45 / 193	−21.7
5	65,201	2385.0	− 2528	−143	× 57 / 193	−42.2
6	65,202	2435.3	− 2552	−116.7	× 43 / 193	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −74, −90, −102, −100, −81, −116, −119, −122, −110 → −101.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 19 · 2019→2022: 35 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 12.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.8 × 2.66 = 34. Upper limit −67.6, lower limit −135.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.