Mojave River Academy - Oro Grande: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	64,267	2369.8	− 2485	−115.2	× 16 / 322	−5.7
5	64,268	2365.1	− 2528	−162.9	× 17 / 322	−8.6
6	64,269	2356.4	− 2552	−195.6	× 22 / 322	−13.4
7	64,270	2432.9	− 2567	−134.1	× 55 / 322	−22.9
8	64,271	2423.8	− 2586	−162.2	× 65 / 322	−32.7
11	64,272	2441.0	− 2628	−187	× 147 / 322	−85.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−169

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,339	2311.1	− 2436	−124.9	× 25 / 368	−8.5
4	64,340	2328.3	− 2485	−156.7	× 20 / 368	−8.5
5	64,341	2358.0	− 2528	−170	× 21 / 368	−9.7
6	64,342	2405.6	− 2552	−146.4	× 41 / 368	−16.3
7	64,343	2409.0	− 2567	−158	× 37 / 368	−15.9
8	64,344	2416.3	− 2586	−169.7	× 69 / 368	−31.8
11	64,345	2437.1	− 2628	−190.9	× 155 / 368	−80.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−171

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,322	2299.4	− 2436	−136.6	× 14 / 406	−4.7
4	64,323	2374.7	− 2485	−110.3	× 22 / 406	−6
5	64,324	2356.2	− 2528	−171.8	× 19 / 406	−8
6	64,325	2409.3	− 2552	−142.7	× 32 / 406	−11.2
7	64,326	2407.7	− 2567	−159.3	× 60 / 406	−23.5
8	64,327	2412.0	− 2586	−174	× 59 / 406	−25.3
11	64,328	2422.5	− 2628	−205.5	× 200 / 406	−101.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−180

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,296	2319.9	− 2436	−116.1	× 12 / 376	−3.7
4	64,297	2319.8	− 2485	−165.2	× 13 / 376	−5.7
5	64,298	2391.8	− 2528	−136.2	× 19 / 376	−6.9
6	64,299	2404.8	− 2552	−147.2	× 33 / 376	−12.9
7	64,300	2436.0	− 2567	−131	× 44 / 376	−15.3
8	64,301	2419.8	− 2586	−166.2	× 94 / 376	−41.6
11	64,302	2443.3	− 2628	−184.7	× 161 / 376	−79.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−165

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,060	2342.6	− 2436	−93.4	× 11 / 456	−2.3
4	64,061	2370.9	− 2485	−114.1	× 19 / 456	−4.8
5	64,062	2385.8	− 2528	−142.2	× 28 / 456	−8.7
6	64,063	2396.1	− 2552	−155.9	× 48 / 456	−16.4
7	64,064	2398.9	− 2567	−168.1	× 59 / 456	−21.7
8	64,065	2412.2	− 2586	−173.8	× 84 / 456	−32
11	64,066	2436.2	− 2628	−191.8	× 207 / 456	−87.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−173

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −169, −171, −180, −165, −173 → −171.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 15 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 8.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.5 × 2.66 = 22.6. Upper limit −149, lower limit −194.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.