Monte Vista Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,770	2353.6	− 2436	−82.4	× 113 / 398	−23.4
4	66,773	2412.7	− 2485	−72.3	× 97 / 398	−17.6
5	66,774	2468.6	− 2528	−59.4	× 97 / 398	−14.5
6	66,777	2518.5	− 2552	−33.5	× 91 / 398	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,943	2388.0	− 2436	−48	× 73 / 382	−9.2
4	61,945	2425.3	− 2485	−59.7	× 120 / 382	−18.8
5	61,947	2451.0	− 2528	−77	× 94 / 382	−18.9
6	61,950	2517.9	− 2552	−34.1	× 95 / 382	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,734	2416.3	− 2436	−19.7	× 93 / 379	−4.8
4	63,736	2449.8	− 2485	−35.2	× 74 / 379	−6.9
5	63,738	2475.4	− 2528	−52.6	× 112 / 379	−15.5
6	63,740	2518.6	− 2552	−33.4	× 100 / 379	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,839	2413.7	− 2436	−22.3	× 92 / 367	−5.6
4	63,840	2464.7	− 2485	−20.3	× 93 / 367	−5.1
5	63,843	2472.7	− 2528	−55.3	× 71 / 367	−10.7
6	63,844	2526.4	− 2552	−25.6	× 111 / 367	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,111	2421.6	− 2436	−14.4	× 79 / 337	−3.4
4	64,112	2467.0	− 2485	−18	× 89 / 337	−4.8
5	64,113	2492.4	− 2528	−35.6	× 99 / 337	−10.5
6	64,114	2535.8	− 2552	−16.2	× 70 / 337	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,200	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 75 / 320	−12.2
4	64,201	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 92 / 320	−13
5	64,202	2481.9	− 2528	−46.1	× 80 / 320	−11.5
6	64,203	2503.7	− 2552	−48.3	× 73 / 320	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,183	2427.0	− 2436	−9	× 72 / 320	−2
4	64,184	2463.7	− 2485	−21.3	× 79 / 320	−5.3
5	64,185	2496.7	− 2528	−31.3	× 86 / 320	−8.4
6	64,186	2547.5	− 2552	−4.5	× 83 / 320	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,157	2434.6	− 2436	−1.4	× 90 / 333	−0.4
4	64,158	2491.0	− 2485	6	× 71 / 333	1.3
5	64,159	2497.8	− 2528	−30.2	× 80 / 333	−7.3
6	64,160	2539.1	− 2552	−12.9	× 92 / 333	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,919	2456.5	− 2436	20.5	× 82 / 323	5.2
4	63,920	2487.8	− 2485	2.8	× 94 / 323	0.8
5	63,921	2534.7	− 2528	6.7	× 66 / 323	1.4
6	63,922	2554.8	− 2552	2.8	× 81 / 323	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −55, −36, −29, −22, −48, −17, −10, 8 → −30.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 31 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 15.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.4 × 2.66 = 41. Upper limit 10.8, lower limit −71.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.