El Camino Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,675	2378.0	− 2436	−58	× 63 / 245	−14.9
4	66,677	2411.4	− 2485	−73.6	× 60 / 245	−18
5	66,679	2445.2	− 2528	−82.8	× 57 / 245	−19.3
6	66,681	2471.5	− 2552	−80.5	× 65 / 245	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,847	2387.3	− 2436	−48.7	× 53 / 235	−11
4	61,849	2411.2	− 2485	−73.8	× 65 / 235	−20.4
5	61,851	2467.2	− 2528	−60.8	× 62 / 235	−16
6	61,854	2469.7	− 2552	−82.3	× 55 / 235	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,637	2378.6	− 2436	−57.4	× 70 / 234	−17.2
4	63,640	2431.1	− 2485	−53.9	× 45 / 234	−10.4
5	63,641	2458.7	− 2528	−69.3	× 59 / 234	−17.5
6	63,644	2478.8	− 2552	−73.2	× 60 / 234	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,743	2381.2	− 2436	−54.8	× 50 / 202	−13.6
4	63,745	2438.9	− 2485	−46.1	× 54 / 202	−12.3
5	63,747	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 40 / 202	−13.8
6	63,749	2495.9	− 2552	−56.1	× 58 / 202	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,013	2412.4	− 2436	−23.6	× 43 / 181	−5.6
4	64,014	2414.4	− 2485	−70.6	× 51 / 181	−19.9
5	64,015	2469.7	− 2528	−58.3	× 53 / 181	−17.1
6	64,016	2504.1	− 2552	−47.9	× 34 / 181	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,102	2365.3	− 2436	−70.7	× 42 / 161	−18.4
4	64,103	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 42 / 161	−7.9
5	64,104	2434.3	− 2528	−93.7	× 39 / 161	−22.7
6	64,105	2495.6	− 2552	−56.4	× 38 / 161	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,085	2398.3	− 2436	−37.7	× 58 / 212	−10.3
4	64,086	2427.9	− 2485	−57.1	× 49 / 212	−13.2
5	64,087	2480.3	− 2528	−47.7	× 55 / 212	−12.4
6	64,088	2431.4	− 2552	−120.6	× 50 / 212	−28.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,059	2378.6	− 2436	−57.4	× 61 / 227	−15.4
4	64,060	2463.1	− 2485	−21.9	× 59 / 227	−5.7
5	64,061	2439.9	− 2528	−88.1	× 51 / 227	−19.8
6	64,062	2481.7	− 2552	−70.3	× 56 / 227	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,821	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 42 / 219	−0.9
4	63,822	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 61 / 219	−12.6
5	63,823	2493.5	− 2528	−34.5	× 62 / 219	−9.8
6	63,824	2492.3	− 2552	−59.7	× 54 / 219	−14.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −74, −67, −64, −56, −52, −62, −64, −58, −38 → −59.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 20 → average 7.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.5 × 2.66 = 20. Upper limit −39.4, lower limit −79.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.