Lucerne Valley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,510	2371.8	− 2436	−64.2	× 50 / 219	−14.7
4	69,512	2397.6	− 2485	−87.4	× 61 / 219	−24.3
5	69,514	2428.3	− 2528	−99.7	× 46 / 219	−20.9
6	69,516	2440.1	− 2552	−111.9	× 62 / 219	−31.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,428	2394.6	− 2436	−41.4	× 50 / 204	−10.1
4	64,431	2427.0	− 2485	−58	× 51 / 204	−14.5
5	64,432	2425.6	− 2528	−102.4	× 63 / 204	−31.6
6	64,435	2477.8	− 2552	−74.2	× 40 / 204	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,237	2408.7	− 2436	−27.3	× 53 / 223	−6.5
4	66,239	2429.3	− 2485	−55.7	× 57 / 223	−14.2
5	66,241	2413.5	− 2528	−114.5	× 57 / 223	−29.3
6	66,244	2447.5	− 2552	−104.5	× 56 / 223	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,308	2406.3	− 2436	−29.7	× 51 / 253	−6
4	66,309	2415.8	− 2485	−69.2	× 63 / 253	−17.2
5	66,312	2441.2	− 2528	−86.8	× 70 / 253	−24
6	66,313	2442.1	− 2552	−109.9	× 69 / 253	−30
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,729	2431.3	− 2436	−4.7	× 54 / 230	−1.1
4	66,730	2468.2	− 2485	−16.8	× 53 / 230	−3.9
5	66,731	2427.7	− 2528	−100.3	× 56 / 230	−24.4
6	66,732	2456.8	− 2552	−95.2	× 67 / 230	−27.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,833	2357.9	− 2436	−78.1	× 83 / 315	−20.6
4	66,834	2413.3	− 2485	−71.7	× 85 / 315	−19.3
5	66,835	2415.3	− 2528	−112.7	× 79 / 315	−28.3
6	66,836	2453.9	− 2552	−98.1	× 68 / 315	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,835	2368.0	− 2436	−68	× 76 / 338	−15.3
4	66,836	2399.7	− 2485	−85.3	× 91 / 338	−23
5	66,837	2425.9	− 2528	−102.1	× 88 / 338	−26.6
6	66,838	2419.4	− 2552	−132.6	× 83 / 338	−32.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,821	2348.7	− 2436	−87.3	× 93 / 362	−22.4
4	66,822	2400.7	− 2485	−84.3	× 79 / 362	−18.4
5	66,823	2439.5	− 2528	−88.5	× 91 / 362	−22.2
6	66,824	2421.9	− 2552	−130.1	× 99 / 362	−35.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,569	2377.8	− 2436	−58.2	× 100 / 375	−15.5
4	66,570	2398.8	− 2485	−86.2	× 94 / 375	−21.6
5	66,571	2424.2	− 2528	−103.8	× 79 / 375	−21.9
6	66,572	2434.5	− 2552	−117.5	× 102 / 375	−32
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −92, −71, −76, −77, −57, −89, −97, −99, −91 → −83.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2022: 32 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 12.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.1 × 2.66 = 32.2. Upper limit −51, lower limit −115.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.