North Tamarind Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,882	2348.0	− 2436	−88	× 79 / 302	−23
4	65,884	2398.1	− 2485	−86.9	× 78 / 302	−22.4
5	65,886	2432.4	− 2528	−95.6	× 67 / 302	−21.2
6	65,888	2477.0	− 2552	−75	× 78 / 302	−19.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,093	2358.9	− 2436	−77.1	× 86 / 304	−21.8
4	61,096	2386.4	− 2485	−98.6	× 75 / 304	−24.3
5	61,097	2425.9	− 2528	−102.1	× 79 / 304	−26.5
6	61,099	2497.3	− 2552	−54.7	× 64 / 304	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,871	2366.7	− 2436	−69.3	× 86 / 318	−18.7
4	62,874	2403.1	− 2485	−81.9	× 83 / 318	−21.4
5	62,876	2403.8	− 2528	−124.2	× 70 / 318	−27.3
6	62,878	2480.1	− 2552	−71.9	× 79 / 318	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,954	2375.9	− 2436	−60.1	× 69 / 305	−13.6
4	62,955	2400.0	− 2485	−85	× 87 / 305	−24.2
5	62,958	2422.8	− 2528	−105.2	× 83 / 305	−28.6
6	62,959	2471.0	− 2552	−81	× 66 / 305	−17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,225	2369.6	− 2436	−66.4	× 81 / 305	−17.6
4	63,226	2430.0	− 2485	−55	× 69 / 305	−12.4
5	63,227	2436.2	− 2528	−91.8	× 78 / 305	−23.5
6	63,228	2489.2	− 2552	−62.8	× 77 / 305	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,300	2341.8	− 2436	−94.2	× 58 / 249	−21.9
4	63,301	2373.8	− 2485	−111.2	× 58 / 249	−25.9
5	63,302	2382.3	− 2528	−145.7	× 64 / 249	−37.4
6	63,303	2453.7	− 2552	−98.3	× 69 / 249	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,243	2350.9	− 2436	−85.1	× 52 / 224	−19.8
4	63,244	2365.5	− 2485	−119.5	× 57 / 224	−30.4
5	63,245	2422.1	− 2528	−105.9	× 60 / 224	−28.4
6	63,246	2441.2	− 2552	−110.8	× 55 / 224	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,215	2332.0	− 2436	−104	× 58 / 235	−25.7
4	63,216	2381.8	− 2485	−103.2	× 60 / 235	−26.3
5	63,217	2425.8	− 2528	−102.2	× 56 / 235	−24.4
6	63,218	2469.1	− 2552	−82.9	× 61 / 235	−21.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,981	2351.0	− 2436	−85	× 55 / 220	−21.3
4	62,982	2379.4	− 2485	−105.6	× 57 / 220	−27.4
5	62,983	2403.4	− 2528	−124.6	× 55 / 220	−31.2
6	62,984	2453.3	− 2552	−98.7	× 53 / 220	−23.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −86, −84, −85, −84, −69, −113, −106, −98, −104 → −92.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 44 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 10.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.5 × 2.66 = 27.9. Upper limit −64.2, lower limit −120.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.