Crestline Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,610	2380.0	− 2436	−56	× 66 / 239	−15.5
4	64,613	2393.9	− 2485	−91.1	× 65 / 239	−24.8
5	64,614	2409.1	− 2528	−118.9	× 56 / 239	−27.9
6	64,617	2471.1	− 2552	−80.9	× 52 / 239	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,930	2345.8	− 2436	−90.2	× 77 / 256	−27.1
4	59,931	2373.3	− 2485	−111.7	× 56 / 256	−24.4
5	59,934	2405.2	− 2528	−122.8	× 66 / 256	−31.7
6	59,935	2435.7	− 2552	−116.3	× 57 / 256	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,659	2343.9	− 2436	−92.1	× 82 / 279	−27.1
4	61,661	2367.1	− 2485	−117.9	× 82 / 279	−34.7
5	61,664	2409.5	− 2528	−118.5	× 52 / 279	−22.1
6	61,665	2395.0	− 2552	−157	× 63 / 279	−35.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,751	2342.1	− 2436	−93.9	× 88 / 282	−29.3
4	61,753	2392.4	− 2485	−92.6	× 68 / 282	−22.3
5	61,755	2382.1	− 2528	−145.9	× 72 / 282	−37.3
6	61,757	2397.0	− 2552	−155	× 54 / 282	−29.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,021	2342.2	− 2436	−93.8	× 82 / 288	−26.7
4	62,022	2364.3	− 2485	−120.7	× 82 / 288	−34.4
5	62,023	2397.7	− 2528	−130.3	× 59 / 288	−26.7
6	62,024	2384.0	− 2552	−168	× 65 / 288	−37.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,642	2346.1	− 2436	−89.9	× 39 / 115	−30.5
4	60,643	2346.6	− 2485	−138.4	× 31 / 115	−37.3
5	60,644	2337.7	− 2528	−190.3	× 20 / 115	−33.1
6	60,645	2393.0	− 2552	−159	× 25 / 115	−34.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,110	2314.9	− 2436	−121.1	× 68 / 229	−36
4	62,111	2356.1	− 2485	−128.9	× 63 / 229	−35.5
5	62,112	2340.7	− 2528	−187.3	× 48 / 229	−39.3
6	62,113	2381.2	− 2552	−170.8	× 50 / 229	−37.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−148

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,048	2327.4	− 2436	−108.6	× 76 / 236	−35
4	62,049	2331.5	− 2485	−153.5	× 62 / 236	−40.3
5	62,050	2382.7	− 2528	−145.3	× 50 / 236	−30.8
6	62,051	2373.8	− 2552	−178.2	× 48 / 236	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−142

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,004	2323.9	− 2436	−112.1	× 70 / 199	−39.4
4	62,005	2346.3	− 2485	−138.7	× 75 / 199	−52.3
5	62,006	2377.5	− 2528	−150.5	× 54 / 199	−40.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−133

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,770	2312.4	− 2436	−123.6	× 66 / 128	−63.7
4	61,771	2365.6	− 2485	−119.4	× 62 / 128	−57.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −86, −109, −119, −119, −126, −135, −148, −142, −133, −122 → −123.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 23 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 9 · 2021→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 9.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.8 × 2.66 = 26.1. Upper limit −97.8, lower limit −150.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.