Jasper Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,471	2432.1	− 2436	−3.9	× 67 / 306	−0.9
4	64,472	2453.1	− 2485	−31.9	× 67 / 306	−7
5	64,475	2488.4	− 2528	−39.6	× 87 / 306	−11.3
6	64,476	2510.8	− 2552	−41.2	× 85 / 306	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,801	2433.3	− 2436	−2.7	× 72 / 298	−0.7
4	59,804	2471.7	− 2485	−13.3	× 66 / 298	−2.9
5	59,805	2479.2	− 2528	−48.8	× 73 / 298	−12
6	59,808	2505.5	− 2552	−46.5	× 87 / 298	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,519	2442.9	− 2436	6.9	× 65 / 271	1.7
4	61,521	2481.2	− 2485	−3.8	× 64 / 271	−0.9
5	61,522	2504.2	− 2528	−23.8	× 70 / 271	−6.1
6	61,524	2508.3	− 2552	−43.7	× 72 / 271	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,619	2453.6	− 2436	17.6	× 67 / 280	4.2
4	61,622	2473.5	− 2485	−11.5	× 67 / 280	−2.8
5	61,623	2485.4	− 2528	−42.6	× 70 / 280	−10.7
6	61,626	2530.8	− 2552	−21.2	× 76 / 280	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,885	2450.3	− 2436	14.3	× 79 / 279	4
4	61,886	2499.7	− 2485	14.7	× 68 / 279	3.6
5	61,887	2515.1	− 2528	−12.9	× 65 / 279	−3
6	61,888	2544.6	− 2552	−7.4	× 67 / 279	−1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,970	2435.7	− 2436	−0.3	× 48 / 257	−0.1
4	61,971	2502.0	− 2485	17	× 69 / 257	4.6
5	61,972	2481.4	− 2528	−46.6	× 66 / 257	−12
6	61,973	2538.6	− 2552	−13.4	× 74 / 257	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,918	2440.3	− 2436	4.3	× 51 / 236	0.9
4	61,919	2505.8	− 2485	20.8	× 54 / 236	4.8
5	61,920	2527.1	− 2528	−0.9	× 62 / 236	−0.2
6	61,921	2535.0	− 2552	−17	× 69 / 236	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,873	2460.5	− 2436	24.5	× 60 / 237	6.2
4	61,874	2513.5	− 2485	28.5	× 57 / 237	6.9
5	61,875	2508.0	− 2528	−20	× 55 / 237	−4.6
6	61,876	2563.0	− 2552	11	× 65 / 237	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,638	2457.0	− 2436	21	× 63 / 198	6.7
4	61,639	2477.3	− 2485	−7.7	× 71 / 198	−2.8
5	61,640	2515.5	− 2528	−12.5	× 64 / 198	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −31, −29, −17, −15, 3, −11, 0, 11, 0 → −9.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 18 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit 17, lower limit −36.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.