Deer Canyon Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,491	2424.6	− 2436	−11.4	× 101 / 377	−3.1
4	64,492	2443.6	− 2485	−41.4	× 79 / 377	−8.7
5	64,495	2499.4	− 2528	−28.6	× 97 / 377	−7.4
6	64,496	2490.0	− 2552	−62	× 100 / 377	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,821	2443.0	− 2436	7	× 75 / 344	1.5
4	59,823	2468.9	− 2485	−16.1	× 92 / 344	−4.3
5	59,825	2502.5	− 2528	−25.5	× 83 / 344	−6.2
6	59,827	2516.5	− 2552	−35.5	× 94 / 344	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,539	2460.0	− 2436	24	× 94 / 348	6.5
4	61,540	2465.4	− 2485	−19.6	× 74 / 348	−4.2
5	61,542	2514.3	− 2528	−13.7	× 93 / 348	−3.7
6	61,545	2544.0	− 2552	−8	× 87 / 348	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,640	2448.6	− 2436	12.6	× 93 / 368	3.2
4	61,641	2491.9	− 2485	6.9	× 94 / 368	1.8
5	61,644	2505.2	− 2528	−22.8	× 78 / 368	−4.8
6	61,645	2546.8	− 2552	−5.2	× 103 / 368	−1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,905	2454.6	− 2436	18.6	× 87 / 353	4.6
4	61,906	2483.5	− 2485	−1.5	× 95 / 353	−0.4
5	61,907	2529.4	− 2528	1.4	× 96 / 353	0.4
6	61,908	2551.6	− 2552	−0.4	× 75 / 353	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,990	2444.0	− 2436	8	× 91 / 353	2.1
4	61,991	2476.4	− 2485	−8.6	× 81 / 353	−2
5	61,992	2491.7	− 2528	−36.3	× 86 / 353	−8.8
6	61,993	2550.9	− 2552	−1.1	× 95 / 353	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,938	2454.3	− 2436	18.3	× 69 / 331	3.8
4	61,939	2473.7	− 2485	−11.3	× 92 / 331	−3.1
5	61,940	2508.3	− 2528	−19.7	× 82 / 331	−4.9
6	61,941	2558.2	− 2552	6.2	× 88 / 331	1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,893	2471.1	− 2436	35.1	× 82 / 332	8.7
4	61,894	2495.9	− 2485	10.9	× 72 / 332	2.4
5	61,895	2506.9	− 2528	−21.1	× 95 / 332	−6
6	61,896	2554.5	− 2552	2.5	× 83 / 332	0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,658	2462.1	− 2436	26.1	× 85 / 256	8.7
4	61,659	2518.2	− 2485	33.2	× 81 / 256	10.5
5	61,660	2521.9	− 2528	−6.1	× 69 / 256	−1.6
6	61,661	2503.2	− 2552	−48.8	× 21 / 256	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −36, −19, −3, −1, 4, −9, −3, 6, 14 → −5.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 16 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 9.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.5 × 2.66 = 25.3. Upper limit 20.1, lower limit −30.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.