Donald F. Bradach Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,387	2362.7	− 2436	−73.3	× 87 / 522	−12.2
4	64,388	2417.7	− 2485	−67.3	× 79 / 522	−10.2
5	64,391	2427.6	− 2528	−100.4	× 81 / 522	−15.6
6	64,392	2453.6	− 2552	−98.4	× 77 / 522	−14.5
7	64,395	2442.5	− 2567	−124.5	× 103 / 522	−24.6
8	64,396	2465.1	− 2586	−120.9	× 95 / 522	−22
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,725	2366.4	− 2436	−69.6	× 80 / 543	−10.3
4	59,727	2397.6	− 2485	−87.4	× 94 / 543	−15.1
5	59,729	2425.6	− 2528	−102.4	× 94 / 543	−17.7
6	59,731	2425.6	− 2552	−126.4	× 94 / 543	−21.9
7	59,733	2443.3	− 2567	−123.7	× 89 / 543	−20.3
8	59,735	2445.1	− 2586	−140.9	× 92 / 543	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,449	2365.0	− 2436	−71	× 93 / 301	−21.9
4	61,451	2410.5	− 2485	−74.5	× 103 / 301	−25.5
5	61,452	2406.0	− 2528	−122	× 105 / 301	−42.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,545	2344.4	− 2436	−91.6	× 72 / 251	−26.3
4	61,547	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 85 / 251	−23.5
5	61,549	2417.4	− 2528	−110.6	× 94 / 251	−41.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,812	2365.6	− 2436	−70.4	× 58 / 211	−19.4
4	61,813	2400.4	− 2485	−84.6	× 69 / 211	−27.7
5	61,814	2407.4	− 2528	−120.6	× 84 / 211	−48
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,899	2343.2	− 2436	−92.8	× 71 / 191	−34.5
4	61,900	2387.6	− 2485	−97.4	× 56 / 191	−28.6
5	61,901	2391.6	− 2528	−136.4	× 64 / 191	−45.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,847	2341.8	− 2436	−94.2	× 89 / 219	−38.3
4	61,848	2382.6	− 2485	−102.4	× 69 / 219	−32.3
5	61,849	2383.6	− 2528	−144.4	× 61 / 219	−40.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,802	2352.8	− 2436	−83.2	× 73 / 229	−26.5
4	61,803	2412.5	− 2485	−72.5	× 79 / 229	−25
5	61,804	2403.3	− 2528	−124.7	× 77 / 229	−41.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,569	2337.6	− 2436	−98.4	× 71 / 217	−32.2
4	61,570	2381.9	− 2485	−103.1	× 67 / 217	−31.8
5	61,571	2395.2	− 2528	−132.8	× 79 / 217	−48.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−112

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −99, −109, −90, −91, −95, −109, −111, −93, −112 → −101
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 18 · 2024→2025: 19 → average 10.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.9 × 2.66 = 29. Upper limit −72, lower limit −130.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.