Aromas - San Juan Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,053	2424.3	− 2436	−11.7	× 76 / 622	−1.4
4	64,055	2449.1	− 2485	−35.9	× 88 / 622	−5.1
5	64,057	2458.0	− 2528	−70	× 85 / 622	−9.6
6	64,058	2491.2	− 2552	−60.8	× 94 / 622	−9.2
7	64,060	2521.8	− 2567	−45.2	× 85 / 622	−6.2
8	64,062	2549.4	− 2586	−36.6	× 96 / 622	−5.6
11	64,065	2536.6	− 2628	−91.4	× 98 / 622	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,399	2404.0	− 2436	−32	× 91 / 595	−4.9
4	59,401	2449.9	− 2485	−35.1	× 83 / 595	−4.9
5	59,404	2477.3	− 2528	−50.7	× 84 / 595	−7.2
6	59,405	2491.3	− 2552	−60.7	× 88 / 595	−9
7	59,407	2518.8	− 2567	−48.2	× 97 / 595	−7.9
8	59,409	2536.7	− 2586	−49.3	× 90 / 595	−7.5
11	59,411	2561.5	− 2628	−66.5	× 62 / 595	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,140	2404.0	− 2436	−32	× 84 / 605	−4.4
4	61,142	2438.4	− 2485	−46.6	× 80 / 605	−6.2
5	61,145	2472.8	− 2528	−55.2	× 82 / 605	−7.5
6	61,146	2497.4	− 2552	−54.6	× 84 / 605	−7.6
7	61,148	2509.8	− 2567	−57.2	× 83 / 605	−7.8
8	61,150	2527.6	− 2586	−58.4	× 101 / 605	−9.7
11	61,152	2558.3	− 2628	−69.7	× 91 / 605	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,256	2406.2	− 2436	−29.8	× 75 / 563	−4
4	61,257	2446.1	− 2485	−38.9	× 83 / 563	−5.7
5	61,260	2458.4	− 2528	−69.6	× 78 / 563	−9.6
6	61,261	2510.6	− 2552	−41.4	× 84 / 563	−6.2
7	61,264	2508.5	− 2567	−58.5	× 84 / 563	−8.7
8	61,265	2537.5	− 2586	−48.5	× 85 / 563	−7.3
11	61,268	2541.9	− 2628	−86.1	× 74 / 563	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,508	2412.4	− 2436	−23.6	× 81 / 563	−3.4
4	61,509	2437.8	− 2485	−47.2	× 75 / 563	−6.3
5	61,510	2443.1	− 2528	−84.9	× 86 / 563	−13
6	61,511	2483.3	− 2552	−68.7	× 79 / 563	−9.6
7	61,512	2525.8	− 2567	−41.2	× 85 / 563	−6.2
8	61,513	2543.3	− 2586	−42.7	× 79 / 563	−6
11	61,514	2521.2	− 2628	−106.8	× 78 / 563	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,115	2373.2	− 2436	−62.8	× 64 / 473	−8.5
4	60,116	2418.7	− 2485	−66.3	× 68 / 473	−9.5
5	60,117	2428.6	− 2528	−99.4	× 72 / 473	−15.1
6	60,118	2472.8	− 2552	−79.2	× 76 / 473	−12.7
7	60,119	2497.6	− 2567	−69.4	× 77 / 473	−11.3
8	60,120	2492.6	− 2586	−93.4	× 69 / 473	−13.6
11	60,121	2555.6	− 2628	−72.4	× 47 / 473	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,591	2393.4	− 2436	−42.6	× 74 / 523	−6
4	61,592	2409.5	− 2485	−75.5	× 66 / 523	−9.5
5	61,593	2452.7	− 2528	−75.3	× 76 / 523	−10.9
6	61,594	2462.4	− 2552	−89.6	× 81 / 523	−13.9
7	61,595	2469.3	− 2567	−97.7	× 79 / 523	−14.8
8	61,596	2514.9	− 2586	−71.1	× 81 / 523	−11
11	61,597	2532.3	− 2628	−95.7	× 66 / 523	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,529	2384.6	− 2436	−51.4	× 76 / 524	−7.5
4	61,530	2423.5	− 2485	−61.5	× 75 / 524	−8.8
5	61,531	2441.9	− 2528	−86.1	× 72 / 524	−11.8
6	61,532	2460.0	− 2552	−92	× 71 / 524	−12.5
7	61,533	2466.8	− 2567	−100.2	× 84 / 524	−16.1
8	61,534	2535.8	− 2586	−50.2	× 77 / 524	−7.4
11	61,535	2542.3	− 2628	−85.7	× 69 / 524	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,478	2382.5	− 2436	−53.5	× 93 / 522	−9.5
4	61,479	2420.1	− 2485	−64.9	× 70 / 522	−8.7
5	61,480	2480.8	− 2528	−47.2	× 74 / 522	−6.7
6	61,481	2477.3	− 2552	−74.7	× 75 / 522	−10.7
7	61,482	2503.8	− 2567	−63.2	× 73 / 522	−8.8
8	61,483	2516.3	− 2586	−69.7	× 78 / 522	−10.4
11	61,484	2549.6	− 2628	−78.4	× 59 / 522	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,223	2390.9	− 2436	−45.1	× 89 / 547	−7.3
4	61,224	2443.8	− 2485	−41.2	× 92 / 547	−6.9
5	61,225	2445.0	− 2528	−83	× 76 / 547	−11.5
6	61,226	2480.1	− 2552	−71.9	× 78 / 547	−10.3
7	61,227	2492.5	− 2567	−74.5	× 78 / 547	−10.6
8	61,228	2541.7	− 2586	−44.3	× 74 / 547	−6
11	61,229	2498.3	− 2628	−129.7	× 60 / 547	−14.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −51, −48, −54, −53, −59, −78, −78, −75, −64, −67 → −62.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 19 · 2021→2022: 0 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 5.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.8 × 2.66 = 15.4. Upper limit −47.3, lower limit −78.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.