Frontier Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,390	2412.5	− 2436	−23.5	× 79 / 295	−6.3
4	63,393	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 74 / 295	−7.6
5	63,394	2495.7	− 2528	−32.3	× 81 / 295	−8.9
6	63,397	2537.1	− 2552	−14.9	× 61 / 295	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,808	2412.4	− 2436	−23.6	× 77 / 322	−5.6
4	58,809	2471.8	− 2485	−13.2	× 81 / 322	−3.3
5	58,811	2498.1	− 2528	−29.9	× 76 / 322	−7.1
6	58,814	2529.8	− 2552	−22.2	× 88 / 322	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,521	2406.8	− 2436	−29.2	× 79 / 299	−7.7
4	60,523	2453.8	− 2485	−31.2	× 67 / 299	−7
5	60,524	2513.9	− 2528	−14.1	× 76 / 299	−3.6
6	60,526	2517.8	− 2552	−34.2	× 77 / 299	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,646	2401.0	− 2436	−35	× 52 / 279	−6.5
4	60,647	2465.7	− 2485	−19.3	× 80 / 279	−5.5
5	60,649	2508.2	− 2528	−19.8	× 61 / 279	−4.3
6	60,652	2539.0	− 2552	−13	× 86 / 279	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,897	2430.5	− 2436	−5.5	× 85 / 290	−1.6
4	60,898	2429.6	− 2485	−55.4	× 60 / 290	−11.5
5	60,899	2501.7	− 2528	−26.3	× 82 / 290	−7.4
6	60,900	2518.8	− 2552	−33.2	× 63 / 290	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,001	2416.4	− 2436	−19.6	× 52 / 241	−4.2
4	61,002	2451.8	− 2485	−33.2	× 55 / 241	−7.6
5	61,003	2470.4	− 2528	−57.6	× 62 / 241	−14.8
6	61,004	2515.3	− 2552	−36.7	× 72 / 241	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,948	2397.5	− 2436	−38.5	× 51 / 228	−8.6
4	60,949	2472.3	− 2485	−12.7	× 55 / 228	−3.1
5	60,950	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 64 / 228	−15.8
6	60,951	2513.2	− 2552	−38.8	× 58 / 228	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,893	2411.8	− 2436	−24.2	× 52 / 223	−5.6
4	60,894	2435.6	− 2485	−49.4	× 56 / 223	−12.4
5	60,895	2488.2	− 2528	−39.8	× 57 / 223	−10.2
6	60,896	2478.0	− 2552	−74	× 58 / 223	−19.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,662	2427.5	− 2436	−8.5	× 55 / 239	−2
4	60,663	2450.0	− 2485	−35	× 60 / 239	−8.8
5	60,664	2468.6	− 2528	−59.4	× 64 / 239	−15.9
6	60,665	2519.1	− 2552	−32.9	× 60 / 239	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −26, −22, −27, −20, −28, −38, −37, −47, −35 → −31.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 7.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.1 × 2.66 = 18.9. Upper limit −12.2, lower limit −50.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.