Orangevale Open K-8: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,575	2460.0	− 2436	24	× 59 / 474	3
4	62,577	2450.7	− 2485	−34.3	× 97 / 474	−7
5	62,579	2514.9	− 2528	−13.1	× 101 / 474	−2.8
6	62,581	2534.5	− 2552	−17.5	× 93 / 474	−3.4
7	62,583	2542.3	− 2567	−24.7	× 61 / 474	−3.2
8	62,585	2600.5	− 2586	14.5	× 63 / 474	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,067	2464.4	− 2436	28.4	× 62 / 481	3.7
4	58,070	2518.3	− 2485	33.3	× 68 / 481	4.7
5	58,072	2515.9	− 2528	−12.1	× 101 / 481	−2.5
6	58,074	2557.7	− 2552	5.7	× 95 / 481	1.1
7	58,075	2571.2	− 2567	4.2	× 91 / 481	0.8
8	58,078	2591.5	− 2586	5.5	× 64 / 481	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,763	2443.0	− 2436	7	× 62 / 465	0.9
4	59,764	2506.7	− 2485	21.7	× 68 / 465	3.2
5	59,766	2545.3	− 2528	17.3	× 68 / 465	2.5
6	59,769	2532.6	− 2552	−19.4	× 95 / 465	−4
7	59,770	2567.7	− 2567	0.7	× 86 / 465	0.1
8	59,772	2590.2	− 2586	4.2	× 86 / 465	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,879	2451.7	− 2436	15.7	× 77 / 445	2.7
4	59,882	2492.8	− 2485	7.8	× 68 / 445	1.2
5	59,883	2528.1	− 2528	0.1	× 65 / 445	0
6	59,885	2579.7	− 2552	27.7	× 66 / 445	4.1
7	59,887	2557.1	− 2567	−9.9	× 84 / 445	−1.9
8	59,890	2605.3	− 2586	19.3	× 85 / 445	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,137	2456.9	− 2436	20.9	× 50 / 414	2.5
4	60,138	2499.0	− 2485	14	× 87 / 414	2.9
5	60,139	2508.0	− 2528	−20	× 67 / 414	−3.2
6	60,140	2553.8	− 2552	1.8	× 65 / 414	0.3
7	60,141	2591.7	− 2567	24.7	× 62 / 414	3.7
8	60,142	2583.2	− 2586	−2.8	× 83 / 414	−0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,205	2459.6	− 2436	23.6	× 48 / 346	3.3
4	60,206	2500.5	− 2485	15.5	× 67 / 346	3
5	60,207	2532.5	− 2528	4.5	× 58 / 346	0.8
6	60,208	2528.7	− 2552	−23.3	× 62 / 346	−4.2
7	60,209	2543.4	− 2567	−23.6	× 54 / 346	−3.7
8	60,210	2553.8	− 2586	−32.2	× 57 / 346	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,160	2420.5	− 2436	−15.5	× 76 / 386	−3.1
4	60,161	2505.7	− 2485	20.7	× 55 / 386	2.9
5	60,162	2503.6	− 2528	−24.4	× 80 / 386	−5.1
6	60,163	2533.2	− 2552	−18.8	× 65 / 386	−3.2
7	60,164	2574.5	− 2567	7.5	× 54 / 386	1
8	60,165	2563.3	− 2586	−22.7	× 56 / 386	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,085	2451.0	− 2436	15	× 73 / 417	2.6
4	60,086	2498.9	− 2485	13.9	× 82 / 417	2.7
5	60,087	2505.0	− 2528	−23	× 53 / 417	−2.9
6	60,088	2527.6	− 2552	−24.4	× 86 / 417	−5
7	60,089	2583.5	− 2567	16.5	× 63 / 417	2.5
8	60,090	2588.4	− 2586	2.4	× 60 / 417	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,846	2434.5	− 2436	−1.5	× 51 / 418	−0.2
4	59,847	2490.9	− 2485	5.9	× 80 / 418	1.1
5	59,848	2512.8	− 2528	−15.2	× 82 / 418	−3
6	59,849	2508.9	− 2552	−43.1	× 60 / 418	−6.2
7	59,850	2535.7	− 2567	−31.3	× 83 / 418	−6.2
8	59,851	2603.9	− 2586	17.9	× 62 / 418	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, 8, 4, 10, 6, −6, −11, 0, −12 → −1.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 20 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 9.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.3 × 2.66 = 24.7. Upper limit 23.3, lower limit −26.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.