James R. Cowan Fundamental Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,370	2415.8	− 2436	−20.2	× 93 / 322	−5.8
4	62,372	2504.0	− 2485	19	× 81 / 322	4.8
5	62,374	2533.7	− 2528	5.7	× 81 / 322	1.4
6	62,376	2547.8	− 2552	−4.2	× 67 / 322	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,864	2465.0	− 2436	29	× 61 / 309	5.7
4	57,865	2485.5	− 2485	0.5	× 98 / 309	0.2
5	57,868	2538.8	− 2528	10.8	× 87 / 309	3
6	57,869	2556.0	− 2552	4	× 63 / 309	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,559	2438.5	− 2436	2.5	× 61 / 273	0.6
4	59,561	2505.7	− 2485	20.7	× 68 / 273	5.2
5	59,562	2513.1	− 2528	−14.9	× 95 / 273	−5.2
6	59,564	2552.3	− 2552	0.3	× 49 / 273	0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,675	2448.2	− 2436	12.2	× 79 / 282	3.4
4	59,678	2480.6	− 2485	−4.4	× 68 / 282	−1.1
5	59,679	2535.8	− 2528	7.8	× 67 / 282	1.9
6	59,682	2510.3	− 2552	−41.7	× 68 / 282	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,933	2469.2	− 2436	33.2	× 52 / 239	7.2
4	59,934	2503.0	− 2485	18	× 86 / 239	6.5
5	59,935	2532.5	− 2528	4.5	× 68 / 239	1.3
6	59,936	2508.3	− 2552	−43.7	× 33 / 239	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,001	2422.3	− 2436	−13.7	× 74 / 236	−4.3
4	60,002	2493.3	− 2485	8.3	× 56 / 236	2
5	60,003	2497.9	− 2528	−30.1	× 70 / 236	−8.9
6	60,004	2513.4	− 2552	−38.6	× 36 / 236	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,956	2440.8	− 2436	4.8	× 53 / 227	1.1
4	59,957	2467.7	− 2485	−17.3	× 76 / 227	−5.8
5	59,958	2505.4	− 2528	−22.6	× 53 / 227	−5.3
6	59,959	2501.7	− 2552	−50.3	× 45 / 227	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,881	2396.4	− 2436	−39.6	× 53 / 234	−9
4	59,882	2486.4	− 2485	1.4	× 58 / 234	0.3
5	59,883	2496.6	− 2528	−31.4	× 87 / 234	−11.7
6	59,884	2502.3	− 2552	−49.7	× 36 / 234	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,642	2409.2	− 2436	−26.8	× 51 / 214	−6.4
4	59,643	2446.5	− 2485	−38.5	× 58 / 214	−10.4
5	59,644	2532.0	− 2528	4	× 57 / 214	1.1
6	59,645	2435.8	− 2552	−116.2	× 48 / 214	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 0, 10, 1, −6, 9, −17, −20, −28, −42 → −10.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 11.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.5 × 2.66 = 30.6. Upper limit 20.3, lower limit −40.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.