Dyer-Kelly Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,429	2365.5	− 2436	−70.5	× 64 / 193	−23.4
4	62,430	2360.9	− 2485	−124.1	× 64 / 193	−41.2
5	62,433	2390.2	− 2528	−137.8	× 65 / 193	−46.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,922	2341.8	− 2436	−94.2	× 61 / 189	−30.4
4	57,924	2380.5	− 2485	−104.5	× 65 / 189	−35.9
5	57,926	2360.3	− 2528	−167.7	× 63 / 189	−55.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,617	2332.3	− 2436	−103.7	× 67 / 202	−34.4
4	59,618	2348.9	− 2485	−136.1	× 68 / 202	−45.8
5	59,620	2361.7	− 2528	−166.3	× 67 / 202	−55.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,734	2330.2	− 2436	−105.8	× 76 / 223	−36.1
4	59,736	2357.6	− 2485	−127.4	× 73 / 223	−41.7
5	59,738	2399.4	− 2528	−128.6	× 74 / 223	−42.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,990	2368.9	− 2436	−67.1	× 81 / 224	−24.3
4	59,991	2360.1	− 2485	−124.9	× 77 / 224	−42.9
5	59,992	2398.4	− 2528	−129.6	× 66 / 224	−38.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,058	2341.5	− 2436	−94.5	× 108 / 358	−28.5
4	60,059	2337.2	− 2485	−147.8	× 144 / 358	−59.5
5	60,060	2387.2	− 2528	−140.8	× 106 / 358	−41.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,013	2351.3	− 2436	−84.7	× 121 / 367	−27.9
4	60,014	2354.6	− 2485	−130.4	× 112 / 367	−39.8
5	60,015	2374.7	− 2528	−153.3	× 134 / 367	−56
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,938	2344.1	− 2436	−91.9	× 130 / 355	−33.7
4	59,939	2359.7	− 2485	−125.3	× 113 / 355	−39.9
5	59,940	2377.7	− 2528	−150.3	× 112 / 355	−47.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−121

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,699	2341.5	− 2436	−94.5	× 132 / 369	−33.8
4	59,700	2374.3	− 2485	−110.7	× 121 / 369	−36.3
5	59,701	2371.4	− 2528	−156.6	× 116 / 369	−49.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −111, −122, −135, −120, −105, −130, −124, −121, −119 → −120.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 25 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 11.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.3 × 2.66 = 30.1. Upper limit −90.7, lower limit −150.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.