Theodore Judah Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,802	2438.1	− 2436	2.1	× 91 / 320	0.6
4	61,804	2480.8	− 2485	−4.2	× 78 / 320	−1
5	61,806	2495.8	− 2528	−32.2	× 72 / 320	−7.2
6	61,808	2520.2	− 2552	−31.8	× 79 / 320	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,363	2461.5	− 2436	25.5	× 89 / 328	6.9
4	57,366	2484.0	− 2485	−1	× 83 / 328	−0.3
5	57,368	2522.0	− 2528	−6	× 81 / 328	−1.5
6	57,370	2522.1	− 2552	−29.9	× 75 / 328	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,038	2482.0	− 2436	46	× 72 / 313	10.6
4	59,040	2496.9	− 2485	11.9	× 82 / 313	3.1
5	59,042	2488.4	− 2528	−39.6	× 80 / 313	−10.1
6	59,044	2550.0	− 2552	−2	× 79 / 313	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,154	2441.2	− 2436	5.2	× 72 / 315	1.2
4	59,155	2509.5	− 2485	24.5	× 82 / 315	6.4
5	59,158	2523.7	− 2528	−4.3	× 89 / 315	−1.2
6	59,159	2517.9	− 2552	−34.1	× 72 / 315	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,409	2462.0	− 2436	26	× 62 / 310	5.2
4	59,410	2486.4	− 2485	1.4	× 72 / 310	0.3
5	59,411	2530.8	− 2528	2.8	× 84 / 310	0.8
6	59,412	2573.3	− 2552	21.3	× 92 / 310	6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,492	2432.2	− 2436	−3.8	× 59 / 229	−1
4	59,493	2493.8	− 2485	8.8	× 60 / 229	2.3
5	59,494	2476.1	− 2528	−51.9	× 64 / 229	−14.5
6	59,495	2554.4	− 2552	2.4	× 46 / 229	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,450	2465.1	− 2436	29.1	× 48 / 237	5.9
4	59,451	2497.2	− 2485	12.2	× 59 / 237	3
5	59,452	2506.6	− 2528	−21.4	× 69 / 237	−6.2
6	59,453	2521.8	− 2552	−30.2	× 61 / 237	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,381	2445.0	− 2436	9	× 46 / 221	1.9
4	59,382	2514.3	− 2485	29.3	× 55 / 221	7.3
5	59,383	2498.5	− 2528	−29.5	× 56 / 221	−7.5
6	59,384	2555.3	− 2552	3.3	× 64 / 221	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,138	2447.4	− 2436	11.4	× 53 / 221	2.7
4	59,139	2488.0	− 2485	3	× 57 / 221	0.8
5	59,140	2533.7	− 2528	5.7	× 56 / 221	1.4
6	59,141	2551.1	− 2552	−0.9	× 55 / 221	−0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −16, −2, 3, −1, 13, −13, −5, 3, 5 → −1.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit 25.5, lower limit −28.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.