O. W. Erlewine Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,692	2408.1	− 2436	−27.9	× 48 / 204	−6.6
4	61,695	2461.9	− 2485	−23.1	× 47 / 204	−5.3
5	61,696	2435.8	− 2528	−92.2	× 53 / 204	−24
6	61,699	2497.4	− 2552	−54.6	× 56 / 204	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,253	2414.0	− 2436	−22	× 42 / 184	−5
4	57,256	2470.5	− 2485	−14.5	× 44 / 184	−3.5
5	57,258	2460.5	− 2528	−67.5	× 52 / 184	−19.1
6	57,260	2488.2	− 2552	−63.8	× 46 / 184	−16
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,928	2435.9	− 2436	−0.1	× 43 / 178	0
4	58,931	2434.8	− 2485	−50.2	× 38 / 178	−10.7
5	58,933	2454.1	− 2528	−73.9	× 45 / 178	−18.7
6	58,934	2494.0	− 2552	−58	× 52 / 178	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,043	2384.0	− 2436	−52	× 37 / 163	−11.8
4	59,045	2482.8	− 2485	−2.2	× 45 / 163	−0.6
5	59,047	2473.7	− 2528	−54.3	× 38 / 163	−12.7
6	59,049	2473.8	− 2552	−78.2	× 43 / 163	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,299	2420.1	− 2436	−15.9	× 35 / 156	−3.6
4	59,300	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 35 / 156	−10.2
5	59,301	2500.1	− 2528	−27.9	× 52 / 156	−9.3
6	59,302	2492.5	− 2552	−59.5	× 34 / 156	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,382	2378.9	− 2436	−57.1	× 39 / 140	−15.9
4	59,383	2461.5	− 2485	−23.5	× 32 / 140	−5.4
5	59,384	2470.0	− 2528	−58	× 30 / 140	−12.4
6	59,385	2506.5	− 2552	−45.5	× 39 / 140	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,340	2433.4	− 2436	−2.6	× 29 / 140	−0.5
4	59,341	2427.6	− 2485	−57.4	× 37 / 140	−15.2
5	59,342	2506.3	− 2528	−21.7	× 42 / 140	−6.5
6	59,343	2474.4	− 2552	−77.6	× 32 / 140	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,271	2431.5	− 2436	−4.5	× 37 / 162	−1
4	59,272	2453.2	− 2485	−31.8	× 33 / 162	−6.5
5	59,273	2437.8	− 2528	−90.2	× 48 / 162	−26.7
6	59,274	2514.2	− 2552	−37.8	× 44 / 162	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,028	2414.3	− 2436	−21.7	× 41 / 154	−5.8
4	59,029	2450.8	− 2485	−34.2	× 41 / 154	−9.1
5	59,030	2481.5	− 2528	−46.5	× 30 / 154	−9.1
6	59,031	2465.3	− 2552	−86.7	× 42 / 154	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −51, −44, −46, −46, −36, −46, −40, −44, −48 → −44.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 5.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.4 × 2.66 = 14.4. Upper limit −30.2, lower limit −59.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.