Abraham Lincoln Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,960	2400.4	− 2436	−35.6	× 69 / 257	−9.6
4	61,962	2404.2	− 2485	−80.8	× 65 / 257	−20.4
5	61,964	2472.7	− 2528	−55.3	× 61 / 257	−13.1
6	61,966	2477.8	− 2552	−74.2	× 62 / 257	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,522	2400.4	− 2436	−35.6	× 63 / 249	−9
4	57,524	2462.0	− 2485	−23	× 66 / 249	−6.1
5	57,525	2451.2	− 2528	−76.8	× 62 / 249	−19.1
6	57,528	2491.7	− 2552	−60.3	× 58 / 249	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,199	2384.7	− 2436	−51.3	× 70 / 261	−13.8
4	59,201	2449.8	− 2485	−35.2	× 64 / 261	−8.6
5	59,202	2466.5	− 2528	−61.5	× 63 / 261	−14.8
6	59,205	2460.0	− 2552	−92	× 64 / 261	−22.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,313	2392.8	− 2436	−43.2	× 74 / 298	−10.7
4	59,316	2435.8	− 2485	−49.2	× 80 / 298	−13.2
5	59,317	2442.6	− 2528	−85.4	× 70 / 298	−20.1
6	59,320	2487.7	− 2552	−64.3	× 74 / 298	−16
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,569	2379.4	− 2436	−56.6	× 69 / 293	−13.3
4	59,570	2443.5	− 2485	−41.5	× 77 / 293	−10.9
5	59,571	2436.8	− 2528	−91.2	× 83 / 293	−25.8
6	59,572	2470.1	− 2552	−81.9	× 64 / 293	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,652	2367.5	− 2436	−68.5	× 73 / 301	−16.6
4	59,653	2409.6	− 2485	−75.4	× 88 / 301	−22
5	59,654	2441.9	− 2528	−86.1	× 70 / 301	−20
6	59,655	2445.7	− 2552	−106.3	× 70 / 301	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,610	2372.5	− 2436	−63.5	× 72 / 308	−14.8
4	59,611	2412.5	− 2485	−72.5	× 79 / 308	−18.6
5	59,612	2412.9	− 2528	−115.1	× 87 / 308	−32.5
6	59,613	2441.3	− 2552	−110.7	× 70 / 308	−25.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,541	2379.5	− 2436	−56.5	× 65 / 301	−12.2
4	59,542	2422.4	− 2485	−62.6	× 75 / 301	−15.6
5	59,543	2424.5	− 2528	−103.5	× 76 / 301	−26.1
6	59,544	2469.3	− 2552	−82.7	× 85 / 301	−23.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,298	2378.5	− 2436	−57.5	× 63 / 286	−12.7
4	59,299	2411.0	− 2485	−74	× 66 / 286	−17.1
5	59,300	2430.5	− 2528	−97.5	× 80 / 286	−27.3
6	59,301	2477.0	− 2552	−75	× 77 / 286	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −61, −48, −60, −60, −68, −83, −91, −77, −77 → −69.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 15 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 8.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.8 × 2.66 = 23.4. Upper limit −46, lower limit −92.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.