River Oaks Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,001	2431.7	− 2436	−4.3	× 85 / 336	−1.1
4	61,002	2434.5	− 2485	−50.5	× 79 / 336	−11.9
5	61,005	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 82 / 336	−15.2
6	61,006	2501.6	− 2552	−50.4	× 90 / 336	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,591	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 85 / 359	−2.3
4	56,594	2453.4	− 2485	−31.6	× 93 / 359	−8.2
5	56,595	2498.0	− 2528	−30	× 88 / 359	−7.4
6	56,598	2542.5	− 2552	−9.5	× 93 / 359	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,235	2462.1	− 2436	26.1	× 68 / 320	5.5
4	58,236	2453.2	− 2485	−31.8	× 81 / 320	−8
5	58,238	2514.9	− 2528	−13.1	× 90 / 320	−3.7
6	58,241	2571.9	− 2552	19.9	× 81 / 320	5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,367	2459.7	− 2436	23.7	× 68 / 311	5.2
4	58,370	2491.4	− 2485	6.4	× 69 / 311	1.4
5	58,371	2511.6	− 2528	−16.4	× 83 / 311	−4.4
6	58,374	2577.0	− 2552	25	× 91 / 311	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,611	2454.9	− 2436	18.9	× 82 / 309	5
4	58,612	2474.7	− 2485	−10.3	× 68 / 309	−2.3
5	58,613	2534.0	− 2528	6	× 75 / 309	1.5
6	58,614	2542.0	− 2552	−10	× 84 / 309	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,686	2437.6	− 2436	1.6	× 62 / 306	0.3
4	58,687	2457.2	− 2485	−27.8	× 90 / 306	−8.2
5	58,688	2481.8	− 2528	−46.2	× 65 / 306	−9.8
6	58,689	2516.1	− 2552	−35.9	× 89 / 306	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,644	2471.6	− 2436	35.6	× 79 / 309	9.1
4	58,645	2459.9	− 2485	−25.1	× 68 / 309	−5.5
5	58,646	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 92 / 309	−17.1
6	58,647	2512.2	− 2552	−39.8	× 70 / 309	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,555	2457.9	− 2436	21.9	× 70 / 311	4.9
4	58,556	2487.2	− 2485	2.2	× 84 / 311	0.6
5	58,557	2469.0	− 2528	−59	× 65 / 311	−12.3
6	58,558	2491.9	− 2552	−60.1	× 92 / 311	−17.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,312	2441.2	− 2436	5.2	× 75 / 289	1.3
4	58,313	2477.1	− 2485	−7.9	× 69 / 289	−1.9
5	58,314	2513.1	− 2528	−14.9	× 81 / 289	−4.2
6	58,315	2502.3	− 2552	−49.7	× 64 / 289	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −20, −1, 10, 1, −28, −23, −25, −16 → −16
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 22 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 29 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 13.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.3 × 2.66 = 35.4. Upper limit 19.4, lower limit −51.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.