Marion Mix Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,786	2413.2	− 2436	−22.8	× 107 / 390	−6.3
4	55,788	2458.9	− 2485	−26.1	× 92 / 390	−6.2
5	55,790	2477.6	− 2528	−50.4	× 105 / 390	−13.6
6	55,791	2487.2	− 2552	−64.8	× 86 / 390	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,411	2416.1	− 2436	−19.9	× 104 / 436	−4.7
4	57,413	2453.7	− 2485	−31.3	× 118 / 436	−8.5
5	57,415	2480.7	− 2528	−47.3	× 102 / 436	−11.1
6	57,416	2507.4	− 2552	−44.6	× 112 / 436	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,521	2451.7	− 2436	15.7	× 93 / 411	3.6
4	57,524	2456.7	− 2485	−28.3	× 111 / 411	−7.6
5	57,525	2475.4	− 2528	−52.6	× 104 / 411	−13.3
6	57,528	2536.9	− 2552	−15.1	× 103 / 411	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,775	2444.5	− 2436	8.5	× 115 / 438	2.2
4	57,776	2478.1	− 2485	−6.9	× 90 / 438	−1.4
5	57,777	2458.7	− 2528	−69.3	× 116 / 438	−18.4
6	57,778	2529.0	− 2552	−23	× 117 / 438	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,458	2393.4	− 2436	−42.6	× 101 / 408	−10.5
4	56,459	2449.9	− 2485	−35.1	× 108 / 408	−9.3
5	56,460	2462.2	− 2528	−65.8	× 112 / 408	−18.1
6	56,461	2486.2	− 2552	−65.8	× 87 / 408	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,814	2411.8	− 2436	−24.2	× 102 / 438	−5.6
4	57,815	2450.0	− 2485	−35	× 113 / 438	−9
5	57,816	2496.9	− 2528	−31.1	× 110 / 438	−7.8
6	57,817	2511.0	− 2552	−41	× 113 / 438	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,774	2422.9	− 2436	−13.1	× 101 / 423	−3.1
4	57,775	2446.6	− 2485	−38.4	× 100 / 423	−9.1
5	57,776	2471.1	− 2528	−56.9	× 104 / 423	−14
6	57,777	2534.9	− 2552	−17.1	× 118 / 423	−4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,674	2444.4	− 2436	8.4	× 105 / 434	2
4	57,675	2458.3	− 2485	−26.7	× 112 / 434	−6.9
5	57,676	2485.9	− 2528	−42.1	× 99 / 434	−9.6
6	57,677	2487.0	− 2552	−65	× 118 / 434	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,434	2411.1	− 2436	−24.9	× 105 / 414	−6.3
4	57,435	2480.6	− 2485	−4.4	× 107 / 414	−1.1
5	57,436	2463.7	− 2528	−64.3	× 103 / 414	−16
6	57,437	2504.0	− 2552	−48	× 99 / 414	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −36, −21, −24, −52, −33, −31, −32, −35 → −33.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 28 · 2021→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 9.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.4 × 2.66 = 25. Upper limit −8.8, lower limit −58.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.