Foulks Ranch Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,341	2436.1	− 2436	0.1	× 132 / 511	0
4	60,342	2474.0	− 2485	−11	× 131 / 511	−2.8
5	60,345	2503.3	− 2528	−24.7	× 125 / 511	−6
6	60,346	2535.2	− 2552	−16.8	× 123 / 511	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,038	2420.9	− 2436	−15.1	× 116 / 507	−3.5
4	56,040	2485.6	− 2485	0.6	× 142 / 507	0.2
5	56,042	2514.3	− 2528	−13.7	× 122 / 507	−3.3
6	56,044	2548.6	− 2552	−3.4	× 127 / 507	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,670	2425.7	− 2436	−10.3	× 120 / 514	−2.4
4	57,672	2471.6	− 2485	−13.4	× 117 / 514	−3.1
5	57,675	2525.0	− 2528	−3	× 140 / 514	−0.8
6	57,676	2544.9	− 2552	−7.1	× 137 / 514	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,805	2460.9	− 2436	24.9	× 111 / 496	5.6
4	57,808	2469.5	− 2485	−15.5	× 127 / 496	−4
5	57,809	2497.5	− 2528	−30.5	× 117 / 496	−7.2
6	57,812	2556.2	− 2552	4.2	× 141 / 496	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,061	2439.9	− 2436	3.9	× 121 / 472	1
4	58,062	2510.8	− 2485	25.8	× 114 / 472	6.2
5	58,063	2504.7	− 2528	−23.3	× 117 / 472	−5.8
6	58,064	2528.9	− 2552	−23.1	× 120 / 472	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,748	2428.7	− 2436	−7.3	× 90 / 417	−1.6
4	56,749	2461.6	− 2485	−23.4	× 117 / 417	−6.6
5	56,750	2482.4	− 2528	−45.6	× 109 / 417	−11.9
6	56,751	2509.7	− 2552	−42.3	× 101 / 417	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,102	2439.0	− 2436	3	× 112 / 419	0.8
4	58,103	2485.8	− 2485	0.8	× 98 / 419	0.2
5	58,104	2499.0	− 2528	−29	× 106 / 419	−7.3
6	58,105	2522.6	− 2552	−29.4	× 103 / 419	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,076	2425.9	− 2436	−10.1	× 99 / 439	−2.3
4	58,077	2479.6	− 2485	−5.4	× 116 / 439	−1.4
5	58,078	2475.9	− 2528	−52.1	× 112 / 439	−13.3
6	58,079	2510.6	− 2552	−41.4	× 112 / 439	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,973	2436.4	− 2436	0.4	× 95 / 435	0.1
4	57,974	2461.8	− 2485	−23.2	× 113 / 435	−6
5	57,975	2491.3	− 2528	−36.7	× 114 / 435	−9.6
6	57,976	2496.4	− 2552	−55.6	× 113 / 435	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,732	2440.2	− 2436	4.2	× 101 / 443	1
4	57,733	2495.2	− 2485	10.2	× 109 / 443	2.5
5	57,734	2485.1	− 2528	−42.9	× 113 / 443	−10.9
6	57,735	2518.1	− 2552	−33.9	× 120 / 443	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −13, −7, −8, −4, −4, −30, −14, −28, −30, −17 → −15.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2021: 26 · 2021→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 13 → average 9.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.1 × 2.66 = 24.2. Upper limit 8.7, lower limit −39.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.