Anna Kirchgater Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,159	2408.7	− 2436	−27.3	× 124 / 542	−6.2
4	60,160	2433.0	− 2485	−52	× 139 / 542	−13.3
5	60,163	2447.4	− 2528	−80.6	× 150 / 542	−22.3
6	60,164	2471.2	− 2552	−80.8	× 129 / 542	−19.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,856	2394.6	− 2436	−41.4	× 121 / 513	−9.8
4	55,857	2429.0	− 2485	−56	× 112 / 513	−12.2
5	55,860	2440.8	− 2528	−87.2	× 139 / 513	−23.6
6	55,861	2490.7	− 2552	−61.3	× 141 / 513	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,488	2383.7	− 2436	−52.3	× 121 / 504	−12.6
4	57,491	2431.8	− 2485	−53.2	× 126 / 504	−13.3
5	57,493	2431.9	− 2528	−96.1	× 117 / 504	−22.3
6	57,495	2485.3	− 2552	−66.7	× 140 / 504	−18.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,620	2395.8	− 2436	−40.2	× 100 / 444	−9.1
4	57,621	2430.0	− 2485	−55	× 106 / 444	−13.1
5	57,624	2449.5	− 2528	−78.5	× 127 / 444	−22.5
6	57,625	2499.9	− 2552	−52.1	× 111 / 444	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,879	2416.3	− 2436	−19.7	× 117 / 452	−5.1
4	57,880	2431.3	− 2485	−53.7	× 101 / 452	−12
5	57,881	2455.3	− 2528	−72.7	× 113 / 452	−18.2
6	57,882	2492.9	− 2552	−59.1	× 121 / 452	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,560	2390.0	− 2436	−46	× 79 / 383	−9.5
4	56,561	2419.6	− 2485	−65.4	× 99 / 383	−16.9
5	56,562	2444.2	− 2528	−83.8	× 105 / 383	−23
6	56,563	2472.3	− 2552	−79.7	× 100 / 383	−20.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,920	2414.1	− 2436	−21.9	× 108 / 411	−5.8
4	57,921	2430.9	− 2485	−54.1	× 89 / 411	−11.7
5	57,922	2438.0	− 2528	−90	× 107 / 411	−23.4
6	57,923	2478.9	− 2552	−73.1	× 107 / 411	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,890	2402.7	− 2436	−33.3	× 95 / 381	−8.3
4	57,891	2433.0	− 2485	−52	× 107 / 381	−14.6
5	57,892	2460.6	− 2528	−67.4	× 80 / 381	−14.2
6	57,893	2484.2	− 2552	−67.8	× 99 / 381	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,790	2425.7	− 2436	−10.3	× 96 / 393	−2.5
4	57,791	2437.4	− 2485	−47.6	× 103 / 393	−12.5
5	57,792	2463.9	− 2528	−64.1	× 108 / 393	−17.6
6	57,793	2492.0	− 2552	−60	× 86 / 393	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,550	2427.6	− 2436	−8.4	× 97 / 405	−2
4	57,551	2458.0	− 2485	−27	× 98 / 405	−6.5
5	57,552	2452.9	− 2528	−75.1	× 99 / 405	−18.4
6	57,553	2503.6	− 2552	−48.4	× 111 / 405	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −61, −62, −67, −58, −51, −70, −60, −55, −46, −40 → −57
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 19 · 2021→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 7.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.9 × 2.66 = 21. Upper limit −36, lower limit −78.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.