Sierra Vista Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,610	2397.3	− 2436	−38.7	× 136 / 789	−6.7
4	59,611	2438.0	− 2485	−47	× 122 / 789	−7.3
5	59,614	2458.9	− 2528	−69.1	× 138 / 789	−12.1
6	59,615	2498.2	− 2552	−53.8	× 393 / 789	−26.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,317	2393.9	− 2436	−42.1	× 111 / 759	−6.2
4	55,319	2453.0	− 2485	−32	× 130 / 759	−5.5
5	55,321	2460.0	− 2528	−68	× 130 / 759	−11.6
6	55,323	2505.2	− 2552	−46.8	× 388 / 759	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,922	2399.5	− 2436	−36.5	× 121 / 767	−5.8
4	56,924	2413.6	− 2485	−71.4	× 118 / 767	−11
5	56,926	2457.5	− 2528	−70.5	× 153 / 767	−14.1
6	56,929	2511.0	− 2552	−41	× 375 / 767	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,030	2410.0	− 2436	−26	× 122 / 734	−4.3
4	57,032	2446.3	− 2485	−38.7	× 124 / 734	−6.5
5	57,034	2466.8	− 2528	−61.2	× 116 / 734	−9.7
6	57,036	2509.2	− 2552	−42.8	× 372 / 734	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,283	2403.3	− 2436	−32.7	× 107 / 742	−4.7
4	57,284	2435.0	− 2485	−50	× 133 / 742	−9
5	57,285	2447.6	− 2528	−80.4	× 117 / 742	−12.7
6	57,286	2499.7	− 2552	−52.3	× 385 / 742	−27.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,375	2396.5	− 2436	−39.5	× 101 / 663	−6
4	57,376	2400.6	− 2485	−84.4	× 95 / 663	−12.1
5	57,377	2412.6	− 2528	−115.4	× 105 / 663	−18.3
6	57,378	2451.2	− 2552	−100.8	× 362 / 663	−55
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,344	2375.7	− 2436	−60.3	× 82 / 645	−7.7
4	57,345	2432.7	− 2485	−52.3	× 98 / 645	−7.9
5	57,346	2405.2	− 2528	−122.8	× 107 / 645	−20.4
6	57,347	2457.6	− 2552	−94.4	× 358 / 645	−52.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,238	2392.0	− 2436	−44	× 84 / 652	−5.7
4	57,239	2405.0	− 2485	−80	× 89 / 652	−10.9
5	57,240	2429.8	− 2528	−98.2	× 105 / 652	−15.8
6	57,241	2450.7	− 2552	−101.3	× 374 / 652	−58.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,996	2413.0	− 2436	−23	× 89 / 627	−3.3
4	56,997	2439.1	− 2485	−45.9	× 91 / 627	−6.7
5	56,998	2408.8	− 2528	−119.2	× 86 / 627	−16.3
6	56,999	2481.3	− 2552	−70.7	× 361 / 627	−40.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −53, −47, −51, −42, −53, −91, −88, −91, −67 → −64.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 38 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 24 → average 12.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.3 × 2.66 = 32.7. Upper limit −32.1, lower limit −97.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.