Alcott Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,141	2421.8	− 2436	−14.2	× 125 / 443	−4
4	58,142	2457.3	− 2485	−27.7	× 110 / 443	−6.9
5	58,145	2481.7	− 2528	−46.3	× 95 / 443	−9.9
6	58,146	2518.2	− 2552	−33.8	× 113 / 443	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	53,964	2427.3	− 2436	−8.7	× 130 / 465	−2.4
4	53,966	2455.6	− 2485	−29.4	× 119 / 465	−7.5
5	53,967	2472.9	− 2528	−55.1	× 112 / 465	−13.3
6	53,969	2527.4	− 2552	−24.6	× 104 / 465	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,543	2412.3	− 2436	−23.7	× 110 / 477	−5.5
4	55,544	2453.8	− 2485	−31.2	× 128 / 477	−8.4
5	55,546	2476.9	− 2528	−51.1	× 122 / 477	−13.1
6	55,548	2498.4	− 2552	−53.6	× 117 / 477	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,640	2430.4	− 2436	−5.6	× 95 / 443	−1.2
4	55,642	2459.2	− 2485	−25.8	× 106 / 443	−6.2
5	55,644	2483.0	− 2528	−45	× 120 / 443	−12.2
6	55,646	2505.0	− 2552	−47	× 122 / 443	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,899	2435.2	− 2436	−0.8	× 106 / 430	−0.2
4	55,900	2463.5	− 2485	−21.5	× 102 / 430	−5.1
5	55,901	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 106 / 430	−14.1
6	55,902	2508.6	− 2552	−43.4	× 116 / 430	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,963	2400.4	− 2436	−35.6	× 87 / 372	−8.3
4	55,964	2462.4	− 2485	−22.6	× 95 / 372	−5.8
5	55,965	2463.4	− 2528	−64.6	× 92 / 372	−16
6	55,966	2516.5	− 2552	−35.5	× 98 / 372	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,912	2412.0	− 2436	−24	× 102 / 375	−6.5
4	55,913	2439.6	− 2485	−45.4	× 90 / 375	−10.9
5	55,914	2479.6	− 2528	−48.4	× 90 / 375	−11.6
6	55,915	2471.8	− 2552	−80.2	× 93 / 375	−19.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,788	2393.6	− 2436	−42.4	× 92 / 375	−10.4
4	55,789	2446.6	− 2485	−38.4	× 101 / 375	−10.3
5	55,790	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 88 / 375	−16.4
6	55,791	2514.6	− 2552	−37.4	× 94 / 375	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,552	2403.9	− 2436	−32.1	× 89 / 376	−7.6
4	55,553	2423.6	− 2485	−61.4	× 99 / 376	−16.2
5	55,554	2463.2	− 2528	−64.8	× 98 / 376	−16.9
6	55,555	2457.7	− 2552	−94.3	× 90 / 376	−22.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −29, −29, −40, −33, −31, −39, −49, −47, −63 → −40
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 0 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7 × 2.66 = 18.6. Upper limit −21.4, lower limit −58.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.