Good Hope Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,847	2374.8	− 2436	−61.2	× 105 / 371	−17.3
4	57,849	2409.2	− 2485	−75.8	× 94 / 371	−19.2
5	57,851	2426.8	− 2528	−101.2	× 77 / 371	−21
6	57,853	2449.2	− 2552	−102.8	× 95 / 371	−26.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	53,702	2394.8	− 2436	−41.2	× 83 / 342	−10
4	53,704	2411.4	− 2485	−73.6	× 101 / 342	−21.7
5	53,705	2427.0	− 2528	−101	× 84 / 342	−24.8
6	53,707	2439.1	− 2552	−112.9	× 74 / 342	−24.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,268	2353.6	− 2436	−82.4	× 90 / 359	−20.7
4	55,271	2428.7	− 2485	−56.3	× 81 / 359	−12.7
5	55,273	2445.6	− 2528	−82.4	× 102 / 359	−23.4
6	55,274	2437.7	− 2552	−114.3	× 86 / 359	−27.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,364	2357.8	− 2436	−78.2	× 95 / 359	−20.7
4	55,366	2420.1	− 2485	−64.9	× 86 / 359	−15.5
5	55,368	2443.6	− 2528	−84.4	× 76 / 359	−17.9
6	55,370	2444.7	− 2552	−107.3	× 102 / 359	−30.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,623	2361.2	− 2436	−74.8	× 82 / 333	−18.4
4	55,624	2407.3	− 2485	−77.7	× 92 / 333	−21.5
5	55,625	2435.5	− 2528	−92.5	× 80 / 333	−22.2
6	55,626	2444.7	− 2552	−107.3	× 79 / 333	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,681	2367.4	− 2436	−68.6	× 74 / 317	−16
4	55,682	2386.4	− 2485	−98.6	× 99 / 317	−30.8
5	55,683	2457.2	− 2528	−70.8	× 69 / 317	−15.4
6	55,684	2463.7	− 2552	−88.3	× 75 / 317	−20.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,632	2356.6	− 2436	−79.4	× 82 / 303	−21.5
4	55,633	2421.2	− 2485	−63.8	× 66 / 303	−13.9
5	55,634	2423.5	− 2528	−104.5	× 89 / 303	−30.7
6	55,635	2474.8	− 2552	−77.2	× 66 / 303	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,508	2387.5	− 2436	−48.5	× 74 / 312	−11.5
4	55,509	2399.9	− 2485	−85.1	× 91 / 312	−24.8
5	55,510	2432.3	− 2528	−95.7	× 67 / 312	−20.6
6	55,511	2435.8	− 2552	−116.2	× 80 / 312	−29.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,260	2344.5	− 2436	−91.5	× 86 / 330	−23.8
4	55,261	2410.6	− 2485	−74.4	× 85 / 330	−19.2
5	55,262	2411.1	− 2528	−116.9	× 91 / 330	−32.2
6	55,263	2426.0	− 2552	−126	× 68 / 330	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −84, −81, −84, −85, −88, −83, −83, −87, −101 → −86.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 4.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.1 × 2.66 = 10.9. Upper limit −75.3, lower limit −97.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.