Murrieta Canyon Academy: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	59,442	2537.4	− 2628	−90.6	× 28 / 28	−90.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	55,162	2546.2	− 2628	−81.8	× 49 / 49	−81.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	56,769	2510.6	− 2586	−75.4	× 11 / 86	−9.6
11	56,770	2479.3	− 2628	−148.7	× 75 / 86	−129.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−139

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	56,873	2470.8	− 2628	−157.2	× 85 / 85	−157.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−157

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	57,120	2497.2	− 2628	−130.8	× 80 / 80	−130.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−131

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,210	2418.9	− 2436	−17.1	× 45 / 325	−2.4
4	57,211	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 57 / 325	−1.8
5	57,212	2463.1	− 2528	−64.9	× 40 / 325	−8
6	57,213	2497.6	− 2552	−54.4	× 38 / 325	−6.4
7	57,214	2514.8	− 2567	−52.2	× 40 / 325	−6.4
8	57,215	2536.3	− 2586	−49.7	× 41 / 325	−6.3
11	57,216	2490.8	− 2628	−137.2	× 64 / 325	−27
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,175	2431.5	− 2436	−4.5	× 15 / 239	−0.3
4	57,176	2462.6	− 2485	−22.4	× 24 / 239	−2.2
5	57,177	2471.1	− 2528	−56.9	× 28 / 239	−6.7
6	57,178	2493.2	− 2552	−58.8	× 25 / 239	−6.2
7	57,179	2533.0	− 2567	−34	× 35 / 239	−5
8	57,180	2504.0	− 2586	−82	× 31 / 239	−10.6
11	57,181	2461.9	− 2628	−166.1	× 81 / 239	−56.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,073	2435.2	− 2436	−0.8	× 11 / 150	−0.1
5	57,075	2501.1	− 2528	−26.9	× 20 / 150	−3.6
6	57,076	2496.0	− 2552	−56	× 17 / 150	−6.3
7	57,077	2511.7	− 2567	−55.3	× 32 / 150	−11.8
8	57,078	2521.1	− 2586	−64.9	× 21 / 150	−9.1
11	57,079	2455.8	− 2628	−172.2	× 49 / 150	−56.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	56,834	2534.8	− 2552	−17.2	× 16 / 119	−2.3
7	56,835	2606.7	− 2567	39.7	× 23 / 119	7.7
8	56,836	2611.0	− 2586	25	× 28 / 119	5.9
11	56,837	2480.3	− 2628	−147.7	× 52 / 119	−64.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −91, −82, −139, −157, −131, −58, −87, −87, −53 → −98.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 57 · 2017→2018: 18 · 2018→2019: 26 · 2019→2022: 73 · 2022→2023: 29 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 34 → average 30.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 30.8 × 2.66 = 81.9. Upper limit −16.4, lower limit −180.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.