Thomas Jefferson Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	56,325	2420.9	− 2552	−131.1	× 199 / 607	−43
7	56,327	2450.7	− 2567	−116.3	× 183 / 607	−35.1
8	56,329	2452.4	− 2586	−133.6	× 225 / 607	−49.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	52,294	2422.8	− 2552	−129.2	× 192 / 563	−44.1
7	52,296	2435.2	− 2567	−131.8	× 190 / 563	−44.5
8	52,298	2465.9	− 2586	−120.1	× 181 / 563	−38.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,803	2433.5	− 2552	−118.5	× 222 / 605	−43.5
7	53,804	2444.5	− 2567	−122.5	× 200 / 605	−40.5
8	53,807	2455.8	− 2586	−130.2	× 183 / 605	−39.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,901	2444.9	− 2552	−107.1	× 207 / 654	−33.9
7	53,904	2441.3	− 2567	−125.7	× 233 / 654	−44.8
8	53,905	2456.8	− 2586	−129.2	× 214 / 654	−42.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−121

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	54,140	2440.2	− 2552	−111.8	× 227 / 660	−38.5
7	54,141	2448.2	− 2567	−118.8	× 198 / 660	−35.6
8	54,142	2450.1	− 2586	−135.9	× 235 / 660	−48.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	54,196	2398.5	− 2552	−153.5	× 149 / 502	−45.6
7	54,197	2414.6	− 2567	−152.4	× 165 / 502	−50.1
8	54,198	2416.6	− 2586	−169.4	× 188 / 502	−63.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−159

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	54,139	2412.1	− 2552	−139.9	× 196 / 516	−53.1
7	54,140	2440.3	− 2567	−126.7	× 152 / 516	−37.3
8	54,141	2419.9	− 2586	−166.1	× 168 / 516	−54.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	54,007	2409.2	− 2552	−142.8	× 173 / 567	−43.6
7	54,008	2429.3	− 2567	−137.7	× 215 / 567	−52.2
8	54,009	2432.3	− 2586	−153.7	× 179 / 567	−48.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−144

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,743	2405.4	− 2552	−146.6	× 181 / 577	−46
7	53,744	2411.1	− 2567	−155.9	× 177 / 577	−47.8
8	53,745	2421.4	− 2586	−164.6	× 219 / 577	−62.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−156

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −128, −127, −123, −121, −122, −159, −145, −144, −156 → −136.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9 × 2.66 = 23.9. Upper limit −112.2, lower limit −160.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.