Oasis Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,805	2346.9	− 2436	−89.1	× 104 / 412	−22.5
4	58,806	2384.8	− 2485	−100.2	× 107 / 412	−26
5	58,808	2401.1	− 2528	−126.9	× 100 / 412	−30.8
6	58,811	2463.9	− 2552	−88.1	× 101 / 412	−21.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,562	2369.2	− 2436	−66.8	× 114 / 423	−18
4	54,564	2381.0	− 2485	−104	× 106 / 423	−26.1
5	54,565	2392.3	− 2528	−135.7	× 108 / 423	−34.6
6	54,568	2466.0	− 2552	−86	× 95 / 423	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,152	2367.9	− 2436	−68.1	× 102 / 433	−16
4	56,155	2414.4	− 2485	−70.6	× 115 / 433	−18.8
5	56,157	2398.9	− 2528	−129.1	× 108 / 433	−32.2
6	56,159	2455.3	− 2552	−96.7	× 108 / 433	−24.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,252	2369.5	− 2436	−66.5	× 98 / 423	−15.4
4	56,254	2385.4	− 2485	−99.6	× 99 / 423	−23.3
5	56,256	2440.2	− 2528	−87.8	× 119 / 423	−24.7
6	56,258	2481.5	− 2552	−70.5	× 107 / 423	−17.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,511	2399.5	− 2436	−36.5	× 90 / 396	−8.3
4	56,512	2400.4	− 2485	−84.6	× 96 / 396	−20.5
5	56,513	2425.2	− 2528	−102.8	× 94 / 396	−24.4
6	56,514	2506.8	− 2552	−45.2	× 116 / 396	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,254	2315.1	− 2436	−120.9	× 58 / 251	−27.9
4	55,255	2354.8	− 2485	−130.2	× 68 / 251	−35.3
5	55,256	2387.6	− 2528	−140.4	× 56 / 251	−31.3
6	55,257	2407.1	− 2552	−144.9	× 69 / 251	−39.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−134

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,589	2357.2	− 2436	−78.8	× 74 / 291	−20
4	56,590	2367.4	− 2485	−117.6	× 62 / 291	−25.1
5	56,591	2397.5	− 2528	−130.5	× 69 / 291	−30.9
6	56,592	2458.5	− 2552	−93.5	× 86 / 291	−27.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,550	2360.0	− 2436	−76	× 72 / 279	−19.6
4	56,551	2400.7	− 2485	−84.3	× 72 / 279	−21.8
5	56,552	2375.0	− 2528	−153	× 66 / 279	−36.2
6	56,553	2424.3	− 2552	−127.7	× 69 / 279	−31.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,438	2345.4	− 2436	−90.6	× 78 / 290	−24.4
4	56,439	2380.7	− 2485	−104.3	× 71 / 290	−25.5
5	56,440	2401.7	− 2528	−126.3	× 70 / 290	−30.5
6	56,441	2422.7	− 2552	−129.3	× 71 / 290	−31.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−112

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,194	2359.8	− 2436	−76.2	× 75 / 283	−20.2
4	56,195	2389.4	− 2485	−95.6	× 75 / 283	−25.3
5	56,196	2382.6	− 2528	−145.4	× 65 / 283	−33.4
6	56,197	2448.0	− 2552	−104	× 68 / 283	−25
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −101, −98, −91, −81, −66, −134, −104, −109, −112, −104 → −100
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2021: 68 · 2021→2022: 30 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 16.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.6 × 2.66 = 44.2. Upper limit −55.8, lower limit −144.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.