John Kelley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,825	2356.6	− 2436	−79.4	× 78 / 319	−19.4
4	58,826	2407.3	− 2485	−77.7	× 79 / 319	−19.2
5	58,829	2413.6	− 2528	−114.4	× 82 / 319	−29.4
6	58,830	2444.7	− 2552	−107.3	× 80 / 319	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,581	2388.2	− 2436	−47.8	× 69 / 297	−11.1
4	54,584	2414.5	− 2485	−70.5	× 78 / 297	−18.5
5	54,585	2441.9	− 2528	−86.1	× 73 / 297	−21.2
6	54,587	2450.9	− 2552	−101.1	× 77 / 297	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,172	2389.4	− 2436	−46.6	× 70 / 288	−11.3
4	56,175	2423.7	− 2485	−61.3	× 69 / 288	−14.7
5	56,177	2428.9	− 2528	−99.1	× 79 / 288	−27.2
6	56,179	2430.5	− 2552	−121.5	× 70 / 288	−29.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,272	2411.6	− 2436	−24.4	× 69 / 278	−6.1
4	56,273	2408.2	− 2485	−76.8	× 62 / 278	−17.1
5	56,275	2431.9	− 2528	−96.1	× 72 / 278	−24.9
6	56,277	2444.0	− 2552	−108	× 75 / 278	−29.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,531	2422.1	− 2436	−13.9	× 60 / 255	−3.3
4	56,532	2426.6	− 2485	−58.4	× 64 / 255	−14.7
5	56,533	2450.7	− 2528	−77.3	× 59 / 255	−17.9
6	56,534	2468.4	− 2552	−83.6	× 72 / 255	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,274	2339.2	− 2436	−96.8	× 59 / 233	−24.5
4	55,275	2381.0	− 2485	−104	× 61 / 233	−27.2
5	55,276	2402.9	− 2528	−125.1	× 52 / 233	−27.9
6	55,277	2432.2	− 2552	−119.8	× 61 / 233	−31.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,609	2363.4	− 2436	−72.6	× 62 / 245	−18.4
4	56,610	2414.3	− 2485	−70.7	× 60 / 245	−17.3
5	56,611	2443.2	− 2528	−84.8	× 66 / 245	−22.8
6	56,612	2466.8	− 2552	−85.2	× 57 / 245	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,570	2362.2	− 2436	−73.8	× 61 / 248	−18.2
4	56,571	2411.4	− 2485	−73.6	× 58 / 248	−17.2
5	56,572	2435.0	− 2528	−93	× 61 / 248	−22.9
6	56,573	2440.1	− 2552	−111.9	× 68 / 248	−30.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,458	2386.2	− 2436	−49.8	× 57 / 242	−11.7
4	56,459	2429.7	− 2485	−55.3	× 63 / 242	−14.4
5	56,460	2406.6	− 2528	−121.4	× 55 / 242	−27.6
6	56,461	2441.2	− 2552	−110.8	× 67 / 242	−30.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,214	2366.1	− 2436	−69.9	× 47 / 223	−14.7
4	56,215	2377.3	− 2485	−107.7	× 55 / 223	−26.6
5	56,216	2456.9	− 2528	−71.1	× 65 / 223	−20.7
6	56,217	2477.1	− 2552	−74.9	× 56 / 223	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −95, −77, −83, −77, −59, −111, −78, −89, −84, −81 → −83.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 18 · 2019→2021: 52 · 2021→2022: 33 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 16.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.9 × 2.66 = 45. Upper limit −38.4, lower limit −128.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.