Nicolet Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	55,468	2464.8	− 2552	−87.2	× 311 / 896	−30.3
7	55,471	2452.3	− 2567	−114.7	× 276 / 896	−35.3
8	55,472	2460.6	− 2586	−125.4	× 309 / 896	−43.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	51,524	2465.2	− 2552	−86.8	× 318 / 883	−31.3
7	51,526	2465.3	− 2567	−101.7	× 311 / 883	−35.8
8	51,527	2464.5	− 2586	−121.5	× 254 / 883	−35
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,015	2453.3	− 2552	−98.7	× 300 / 906	−32.7
7	53,017	2461.0	− 2567	−106	× 302 / 906	−35.3
8	53,019	2440.4	− 2586	−145.6	× 304 / 906	−48.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,104	2411.8	− 2552	−140.2	× 333 / 932	−50.1
7	53,105	2455.4	− 2567	−111.6	× 287 / 932	−34.4
8	53,107	2449.3	− 2586	−136.7	× 312 / 932	−45.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,332	2414.4	− 2552	−137.6	× 341 / 891	−52.7
7	53,333	2437.5	− 2567	−129.5	× 290 / 891	−42.1
8	53,334	2447.5	− 2586	−138.5	× 260 / 891	−40.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,338	2418.4	− 2552	−133.6	× 313 / 893	−46.8
7	53,339	2417.5	− 2567	−149.5	× 299 / 893	−50.1
8	53,340	2419.8	− 2586	−166.2	× 281 / 893	−52.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−149

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,287	2404.9	− 2552	−147.1	× 349 / 924	−55.6
7	53,288	2433.5	− 2567	−133.5	× 301 / 924	−43.5
8	53,289	2424.1	− 2586	−161.9	× 274 / 924	−48
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−147

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	53,145	2432.7	− 2552	−119.3	× 305 / 928	−39.2
7	53,146	2417.7	− 2567	−149.3	× 331 / 928	−53.3
8	53,147	2438.8	− 2586	−147.2	× 292 / 928	−46.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−139

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	52,885	2418.7	− 2552	−133.3	× 315 / 937	−44.8
7	52,886	2442.8	− 2567	−124.2	× 312 / 937	−41.4
8	52,887	2425.7	− 2586	−160.3	× 310 / 937	−53
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−139

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −109, −102, −117, −130, −135, −149, −147, −139, −139 → −129.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 13 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8 × 2.66 = 21.3. Upper limit −108.4, lower limit −151.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.