Penryn Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,011	2423.0	− 2436	−13	× 28 / 150	−2.4
4	54,012	2466.6	− 2485	−18.4	× 15 / 150	−1.8
5	54,015	2517.1	− 2528	−10.9	× 24 / 150	−1.7
6	54,016	2566.7	− 2552	14.7	× 29 / 150	2.8
7	54,019	2553.8	− 2567	−13.2	× 23 / 150	−2
8	54,020	2552.4	− 2586	−33.6	× 31 / 150	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,180	2429.6	− 2436	−6.4	× 25 / 155	−1
4	50,181	2492.5	− 2485	7.5	× 31 / 155	1.5
5	50,183	2524.7	− 2528	−3.3	× 18 / 155	−0.4
6	50,186	2554.2	− 2552	2.2	× 28 / 155	0.4
7	50,188	2614.7	− 2567	47.7	× 30 / 155	9.2
8	50,189	2579.8	− 2586	−6.2	× 23 / 155	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,602	2423.7	− 2436	−12.3	× 23 / 171	−1.7
4	51,604	2510.4	− 2485	25.4	× 27 / 171	4
5	51,606	2547.7	− 2528	19.7	× 33 / 171	3.8
6	51,608	2536.0	− 2552	−16	× 27 / 171	−2.5
7	51,610	2598.4	− 2567	31.4	× 32 / 171	5.9
8	51,611	2628.4	− 2586	42.4	× 29 / 171	7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,632	2459.5	− 2436	23.5	× 26 / 173	3.5
4	51,633	2472.4	− 2485	−12.6	× 28 / 173	−2
5	51,636	2536.7	− 2528	8.7	× 25 / 173	1.3
6	51,637	2554.1	− 2552	2.1	× 36 / 173	0.4
7	51,640	2563.3	− 2567	−3.7	× 30 / 173	−0.6
8	51,641	2635.1	− 2586	49.1	× 28 / 173	7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,829	2442.7	− 2436	6.7	× 28 / 172	1.1
4	51,830	2522.5	− 2485	37.5	× 27 / 172	5.9
5	51,831	2488.5	− 2528	−39.5	× 33 / 172	−7.6
6	51,832	2568.8	− 2552	16.8	× 27 / 172	2.6
7	51,833	2589.0	− 2567	22	× 33 / 172	4.2
8	51,834	2620.4	− 2586	34.4	× 24 / 172	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,755	2502.4	− 2436	66.4	× 25 / 161	10.3
4	51,756	2519.6	− 2485	34.6	× 30 / 161	6.4
5	51,757	2554.9	− 2528	26.9	× 28 / 161	4.7
6	51,758	2575.5	− 2552	23.5	× 24 / 161	3.5
7	51,759	2630.8	− 2567	63.8	× 22 / 161	8.7
8	51,760	2592.9	− 2586	6.9	× 32 / 161	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,722	2464.4	− 2436	28.4	× 27 / 163	4.7
4	51,723	2508.9	− 2485	23.9	× 25 / 163	3.7
5	51,724	2542.4	− 2528	14.4	× 27 / 163	2.4
6	51,725	2532.8	− 2552	−19.2	× 31 / 163	−3.7
7	51,726	2602.2	− 2567	35.2	× 28 / 163	6
8	51,727	2567.8	− 2586	−18.2	× 25 / 163	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,540	2478.7	− 2436	42.7	× 26 / 166	6.7
4	51,541	2493.8	− 2485	8.8	× 30 / 166	1.6
5	51,542	2537.2	− 2528	9.2	× 24 / 166	1.3
6	51,543	2557.7	− 2552	5.7	× 27 / 166	0.9
7	51,544	2585.8	− 2567	18.8	× 28 / 166	3.2
8	51,545	2649.2	− 2586	63.2	× 31 / 166	11.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						26

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,322	2478.3	− 2436	42.3	× 27 / 162	7.1
4	51,323	2547.3	− 2485	62.3	× 25 / 162	9.6
5	51,324	2537.5	− 2528	9.5	× 28 / 162	1.6
6	51,325	2568.6	− 2552	16.6	× 26 / 162	2.7
7	51,326	2627.1	− 2567	60.1	× 26 / 162	9.6
8	51,327	2647.0	− 2586	61	× 30 / 162	11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						42

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, 9, 17, 10, 11, 35, 10, 26, 42 → 16.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 25 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 14.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.8 × 2.66 = 39.4. Upper limit 55.8, lower limit −23.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.