Santiago Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,894	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 150 / 804	−5.2
4	51,896	2437.5	− 2485	−47.5	× 180 / 804	−10.6
5	51,898	2475.3	− 2528	−52.7	× 146 / 804	−9.6
6	51,900	2492.5	− 2552	−59.5	× 111 / 804	−8.2
7	51,902	2490.7	− 2567	−76.3	× 116 / 804	−11
8	51,904	2555.1	− 2586	−30.9	× 101 / 804	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,212	2394.4	− 2436	−41.6	× 143 / 786	−7.6
4	48,214	2449.2	− 2485	−35.8	× 150 / 786	−6.8
5	48,215	2452.5	− 2528	−75.5	× 169 / 786	−16.2
6	48,217	2484.6	− 2552	−67.4	× 115 / 786	−9.9
7	48,220	2511.1	− 2567	−55.9	× 103 / 786	−7.3
8	48,222	2511.6	− 2586	−74.4	× 106 / 786	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,539	2407.4	− 2436	−28.6	× 142 / 781	−5.2
4	49,541	2447.6	− 2485	−37.4	× 148 / 781	−7.1
5	49,543	2462.6	− 2528	−65.4	× 146 / 781	−12.2
6	49,545	2469.2	− 2552	−82.8	× 142 / 781	−15.1
7	49,548	2503.5	− 2567	−63.5	× 103 / 781	−8.4
8	49,550	2520.9	− 2586	−65.1	× 100 / 781	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,553	2402.6	− 2436	−33.4	× 135 / 770	−5.9
4	49,555	2452.0	− 2485	−33	× 138 / 770	−5.9
5	49,557	2469.3	− 2528	−58.7	× 140 / 770	−10.7
6	49,559	2491.2	− 2552	−60.8	× 130 / 770	−10.3
7	49,561	2488.0	− 2567	−79	× 127 / 770	−13
8	49,563	2509.9	− 2586	−76.1	× 100 / 770	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,755	2414.3	− 2436	−21.7	× 124 / 757	−3.6
4	49,756	2430.8	− 2485	−54.2	× 131 / 757	−9.4
5	49,757	2464.3	− 2528	−63.7	× 133 / 757	−11.2
6	49,758	2461.5	− 2552	−90.5	× 125 / 757	−14.9
7	49,759	2514.9	− 2567	−52.1	× 125 / 757	−8.6
8	49,760	2499.1	− 2586	−86.9	× 119 / 757	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,661	2391.8	− 2436	−44.2	× 111 / 645	−7.6
4	49,662	2455.7	− 2485	−29.3	× 101 / 645	−4.6
5	49,663	2458.4	− 2528	−69.6	× 132 / 645	−14.2
6	49,664	2458.2	− 2552	−93.8	× 103 / 645	−15
7	49,665	2471.5	− 2567	−95.5	× 103 / 645	−15.3
8	49,666	2491.0	− 2586	−95	× 95 / 645	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,623	2407.8	− 2436	−28.2	× 107 / 611	−4.9
4	49,624	2457.1	− 2485	−27.9	× 103 / 611	−4.7
5	49,625	2486.3	− 2528	−41.7	× 93 / 611	−6.3
6	49,626	2459.1	− 2552	−92.9	× 125 / 611	−19
7	49,627	2482.8	− 2567	−84.2	× 88 / 611	−12.1
8	49,628	2469.7	− 2586	−116.3	× 95 / 611	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,474	2404.9	− 2436	−31.1	× 111 / 611	−5.6
4	49,475	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 106 / 611	−5.3
5	49,476	2467.2	− 2528	−60.8	× 102 / 611	−10.1
6	49,477	2469.6	− 2552	−82.4	× 91 / 611	−12.3
7	49,478	2481.0	− 2567	−86	× 114 / 611	−16
8	49,479	2477.3	− 2586	−108.7	× 87 / 611	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,232	2397.4	− 2436	−38.6	× 85 / 593	−5.5
4	49,233	2461.9	− 2485	−23.1	× 106 / 593	−4.1
5	49,234	2485.2	− 2528	−42.8	× 112 / 593	−8.1
6	49,235	2467.7	− 2552	−84.3	× 109 / 593	−15.5
7	49,236	2477.8	− 2567	−89.2	× 75 / 593	−11.3
8	49,237	2487.1	− 2586	−98.9	× 106 / 593	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −48, −58, −56, −56, −61, −71, −65, −65, −62 → −60.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 4.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.5 × 2.66 = 12. Upper limit −48.2, lower limit −72.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.