Cielo Vista Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,640	2406.9	− 2436	−29.1	× 93 / 443	−6.1
4	52,641	2476.6	− 2485	−8.4	× 94 / 443	−1.8
5	52,644	2504.4	− 2528	−23.6	× 129 / 443	−6.9
6	52,645	2518.8	− 2552	−33.2	× 127 / 443	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,915	2421.3	− 2436	−14.7	× 108 / 411	−3.9
4	48,918	2440.7	− 2485	−44.3	× 87 / 411	−9.4
5	48,920	2492.9	− 2528	−35.1	× 89 / 411	−7.6
6	48,921	2553.5	− 2552	1.5	× 127 / 411	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,251	2440.8	− 2436	4.8	× 84 / 378	1.1
4	50,254	2458.6	− 2485	−26.4	× 107 / 378	−7.5
5	50,256	2479.2	− 2528	−48.8	× 94 / 378	−12.1
6	50,257	2520.3	− 2552	−31.7	× 93 / 378	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,276	2433.8	− 2436	−2.2	× 80 / 364	−0.5
4	50,278	2474.8	− 2485	−10.2	× 81 / 364	−2.3
5	50,280	2481.1	− 2528	−46.9	× 104 / 364	−13.4
6	50,282	2517.5	− 2552	−34.5	× 99 / 364	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,469	2429.8	− 2436	−6.2	× 102 / 375	−1.7
4	50,470	2475.6	− 2485	−9.4	× 80 / 375	−2
5	50,471	2499.2	− 2528	−28.8	× 92 / 375	−7.1
6	50,472	2512.6	− 2552	−39.4	× 101 / 375	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,371	2411.6	− 2436	−24.4	× 68 / 315	−5.3
4	50,372	2465.4	− 2485	−19.6	× 74 / 315	−4.6
5	50,373	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 76 / 315	−13.8
6	50,374	2497.0	− 2552	−55	× 97 / 315	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,331	2406.5	− 2436	−29.5	× 69 / 283	−7.2
4	50,332	2441.0	− 2485	−44	× 70 / 283	−10.9
5	50,333	2515.1	− 2528	−12.9	× 70 / 283	−3.2
6	50,334	2485.0	− 2552	−67	× 74 / 283	−17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,186	2408.7	− 2436	−27.3	× 55 / 259	−5.8
4	50,187	2445.3	− 2485	−39.7	× 68 / 259	−10.4
5	50,188	2483.2	− 2528	−44.8	× 62 / 259	−10.7
6	50,189	2521.7	− 2552	−30.3	× 74 / 259	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,942	2416.7	− 2436	−19.3	× 63 / 241	−5
4	49,943	2441.1	− 2485	−43.9	× 50 / 241	−9.1
5	49,944	2487.8	− 2528	−40.2	× 68 / 241	−11.3
6	49,945	2508.4	− 2552	−43.6	× 60 / 241	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −24, −20, −26, −26, −21, −41, −39, −36, −36 → −29.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 20 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5 × 2.66 = 13.3. Upper limit −16.6, lower limit −43.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.