Morse Avenue Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,471	2419.2	− 2436	−16.8	× 68 / 275	−4.2
4	51,473	2458.5	− 2485	−26.5	× 66 / 275	−6.4
5	51,475	2484.7	− 2528	−43.3	× 68 / 275	−10.7
6	51,477	2531.6	− 2552	−20.4	× 73 / 275	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,790	2431.7	− 2436	−4.3	× 64 / 259	−1.1
4	47,792	2477.5	− 2485	−7.5	× 62 / 259	−1.8
5	47,793	2518.4	− 2528	−9.6	× 67 / 259	−2.5
6	47,795	2537.5	− 2552	−14.5	× 66 / 259	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,094	2429.3	− 2436	−6.7	× 64 / 262	−1.6
4	49,096	2460.4	− 2485	−24.6	× 62 / 262	−5.8
5	49,097	2504.4	− 2528	−23.6	× 60 / 262	−5.4
6	49,100	2525.5	− 2552	−26.5	× 76 / 262	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,116	2450.8	− 2436	14.8	× 73 / 270	4
4	49,118	2441.2	− 2485	−43.8	× 70 / 270	−11.4
5	49,120	2495.9	− 2528	−32.1	× 59 / 270	−7
6	49,122	2549.6	− 2552	−2.4	× 68 / 270	−0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,315	2434.9	− 2436	−1.1	× 63 / 266	−0.3
4	49,316	2474.7	− 2485	−10.3	× 74 / 266	−2.9
5	49,317	2464.8	− 2528	−63.2	× 71 / 266	−16.9
6	49,318	2515.9	− 2552	−36.1	× 58 / 266	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,239	2448.8	− 2436	12.8	× 54 / 222	3.1
4	49,240	2460.8	− 2485	−24.2	× 56 / 222	−6.1
5	49,241	2462.2	− 2528	−65.8	× 54 / 222	−16
6	49,242	2510.3	− 2552	−41.7	× 58 / 222	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,201	2427.5	− 2436	−8.5	× 40 / 206	−1.7
4	49,202	2495.0	− 2485	10	× 56 / 206	2.7
5	49,203	2493.0	− 2528	−35	× 55 / 206	−9.3
6	49,204	2514.0	− 2552	−38	× 55 / 206	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,052	2460.2	− 2436	24.2	× 37 / 195	4.6
4	49,053	2472.2	− 2485	−12.8	× 46 / 195	−3
5	49,054	2521.1	− 2528	−6.9	× 53 / 195	−1.9
6	49,055	2533.9	− 2552	−18.1	× 59 / 195	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,806	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 53 / 195	−1.3
4	48,807	2513.2	− 2485	28.2	× 39 / 195	5.6
5	48,808	2489.8	− 2528	−38.2	× 46 / 195	−9
6	48,809	2538.5	− 2552	−13.5	× 57 / 195	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −27, −9, −21, −15, −28, −30, −18, −6, −9 → −18.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 9.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.8 × 2.66 = 26.1. Upper limit 8, lower limit −44.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.