Wilson Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,743	2425.7	− 2436	−10.3	× 78 / 290	−2.8
4	50,745	2437.8	− 2485	−47.2	× 60 / 290	−9.8
5	50,747	2466.3	− 2528	−61.7	× 74 / 290	−15.7
6	50,749	2489.9	− 2552	−62.1	× 78 / 290	−16.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,126	2427.1	− 2436	−8.9	× 68 / 274	−2.2
4	47,127	2457.8	− 2485	−27.2	× 75 / 274	−7.4
5	47,129	2472.8	− 2528	−55.2	× 59 / 274	−11.9
6	47,132	2477.2	− 2552	−74.8	× 72 / 274	−19.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,411	2437.1	− 2436	1.1	× 64 / 250	0.3
4	48,413	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 64 / 250	−10.9
5	48,416	2473.0	− 2528	−55	× 70 / 250	−15.4
6	48,417	2463.4	− 2552	−88.6	× 52 / 250	−18.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,421	2426.1	− 2436	−9.9	× 50 / 253	−2
4	48,423	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 65 / 253	−10.9
5	48,425	2447.7	− 2528	−80.3	× 68 / 253	−21.6
6	48,427	2475.5	− 2552	−76.5	× 70 / 253	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,641	2409.7	− 2436	−26.3	× 62 / 233	−7
4	48,642	2447.8	− 2485	−37.2	× 44 / 233	−7
5	48,643	2458.3	− 2528	−69.7	× 64 / 233	−19.1
6	48,644	2460.0	− 2552	−92	× 63 / 233	−24.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,342	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 42 / 178	−8.3
4	47,343	2436.5	− 2485	−48.5	× 52 / 178	−14.2
5	47,344	2460.0	− 2528	−68	× 46 / 178	−17.6
6	47,345	2436.3	− 2552	−115.7	× 38 / 178	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,517	2398.0	− 2436	−38	× 42 / 210	−7.6
4	48,518	2434.5	− 2485	−50.5	× 52 / 210	−12.5
5	48,519	2444.0	− 2528	−84	× 60 / 210	−24
6	48,520	2446.5	− 2552	−105.5	× 56 / 210	−28.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,487	2382.8	− 2436	−53.2	× 48 / 210	−12.2
4	48,488	2414.1	− 2485	−70.9	× 46 / 210	−15.5
5	48,489	2445.5	− 2528	−82.5	× 56 / 210	−22
6	48,490	2462.9	− 2552	−89.1	× 60 / 210	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,346	2380.7	− 2436	−55.3	× 50 / 203	−13.6
4	48,347	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 49 / 203	−10.9
5	48,348	2425.5	− 2528	−102.5	× 46 / 203	−23.2
6	48,349	2445.6	− 2552	−106.4	× 58 / 203	−30.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,108	2406.5	− 2436	−29.5	× 46 / 182	−7.5
4	48,109	2407.7	− 2485	−77.3	× 46 / 182	−19.5
5	48,110	2435.9	− 2528	−92.1	× 48 / 182	−24.3
6	48,111	2425.0	− 2552	−127	× 42 / 182	−29.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −45, −41, −44, −56, −58, −65, −72, −75, −78, −81 → −61.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 7 · 2021→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 4.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.9 × 2.66 = 13. Upper limit −48.5, lower limit −74.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.