Earl Warren Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,669	2426.4	− 2436	−9.6	× 76 / 284	−2.6
4	49,671	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 76 / 284	−11.1
5	49,673	2451.8	− 2528	−76.2	× 67 / 284	−18
6	49,675	2514.5	− 2552	−37.5	× 65 / 284	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,154	2439.9	− 2436	3.9	× 67 / 287	0.9
4	46,155	2470.7	− 2485	−14.3	× 70 / 287	−3.5
5	46,158	2497.6	− 2528	−30.4	× 79 / 287	−8.4
6	46,159	2543.2	− 2552	−8.8	× 71 / 287	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,396	2456.6	− 2436	20.6	× 73 / 278	5.4
4	47,397	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 66 / 278	−2.4
5	47,399	2495.8	− 2528	−32.2	× 62 / 278	−7.2
6	47,402	2543.4	− 2552	−8.6	× 77 / 278	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,406	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 57 / 261	2.6
4	47,408	2484.5	− 2485	−0.5	× 75 / 261	−0.1
5	47,410	2525.0	− 2528	−3	× 65 / 261	−0.7
6	47,412	2556.0	− 2552	4	× 64 / 261	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,585	2485.3	− 2436	49.3	× 70 / 262	13.2
4	47,586	2515.5	− 2485	30.5	× 58 / 262	6.8
5	47,587	2519.5	− 2528	−8.5	× 69 / 262	−2.2
6	47,588	2548.3	− 2552	−3.7	× 65 / 262	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,435	2423.3	− 2436	−12.7	× 68 / 237	−3.6
4	47,436	2452.4	− 2485	−32.6	× 42 / 237	−5.8
5	47,437	2507.0	− 2528	−21	× 56 / 237	−5
6	47,438	2550.4	− 2552	−1.6	× 71 / 237	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,421	2419.9	− 2436	−16.1	× 51 / 229	−3.6
4	47,422	2472.4	− 2485	−12.6	× 70 / 229	−3.9
5	47,423	2470.2	− 2528	−57.8	× 49 / 229	−12.4
6	47,424	2563.0	− 2552	11	× 59 / 229	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,270	2412.8	− 2436	−23.2	× 51 / 221	−5.4
4	47,271	2456.3	− 2485	−28.7	× 51 / 221	−6.6
5	47,272	2487.9	− 2528	−40.1	× 69 / 221	−12.5
6	47,273	2528.1	− 2552	−23.9	× 50 / 221	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,026	2417.6	− 2436	−18.4	× 49 / 225	−4
4	47,027	2456.7	− 2485	−28.3	× 57 / 225	−7.2
5	47,028	2487.5	− 2528	−40.5	× 53 / 225	−9.5
6	47,029	2553.1	− 2552	1.1	× 66 / 225	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −13, −7, 3, 17, −15, −17, −30, −20 → −13.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 27 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2022: 32 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 10 → average 14.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.3 × 2.66 = 38. Upper limit 24.4, lower limit −51.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.