Rolling Hills Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,412	2436.9	− 2436	0.9	× 102 / 404	0.2
4	49,414	2476.1	− 2485	−8.9	× 108 / 404	−2.4
5	49,416	2514.7	− 2528	−13.3	× 99 / 404	−3.3
6	49,418	2525.8	− 2552	−26.2	× 95 / 404	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,931	2444.3	− 2436	8.3	× 94 / 394	2
4	45,933	2477.8	− 2485	−7.2	× 100 / 394	−1.8
5	45,935	2528.4	− 2528	0.4	× 101 / 394	0.1
6	45,938	2543.9	− 2552	−8.1	× 99 / 394	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,157	2455.5	− 2436	19.5	× 102 / 396	5
4	47,159	2478.5	− 2485	−6.5	× 92 / 396	−1.5
5	47,161	2497.1	− 2528	−30.9	× 102 / 396	−8
6	47,164	2544.5	− 2552	−7.5	× 100 / 396	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,168	2454.6	− 2436	18.6	× 106 / 402	4.9
4	47,170	2502.9	− 2485	17.9	× 103 / 402	4.6
5	47,172	2514.0	− 2528	−14	× 91 / 402	−3.2
6	47,174	2506.9	− 2552	−45.1	× 102 / 402	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,345	2449.4	− 2436	13.4	× 96 / 379	3.4
4	47,346	2501.0	− 2485	16	× 92 / 379	3.9
5	47,347	2538.2	− 2528	10.2	× 101 / 379	2.7
6	47,348	2528.4	− 2552	−23.6	× 90 / 379	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,197	2430.9	− 2436	−5.1	× 79 / 308	−1.3
4	47,198	2472.7	− 2485	−12.3	× 83 / 308	−3.3
5	47,199	2507.6	− 2528	−20.4	× 70 / 308	−4.6
6	47,200	2519.1	− 2552	−32.9	× 76 / 308	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,179	2421.5	− 2436	−14.5	× 76 / 296	−3.7
4	47,180	2483.4	− 2485	−1.6	× 74 / 296	−0.4
5	47,181	2481.0	− 2528	−47	× 76 / 296	−12.1
6	47,182	2514.2	− 2552	−37.8	× 70 / 296	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,032	2438.9	− 2436	2.9	× 73 / 315	0.7
4	47,033	2469.2	− 2485	−15.8	× 77 / 315	−3.9
5	47,034	2500.5	− 2528	−27.5	× 86 / 315	−7.5
6	47,035	2494.4	− 2552	−57.6	× 79 / 315	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,794	2397.3	− 2436	−38.7	× 65 / 291	−8.6
4	46,795	2472.0	− 2485	−13	× 68 / 291	−3
5	46,796	2474.9	− 2528	−53.1	× 76 / 291	−13.9
6	46,797	2527.5	− 2552	−24.5	× 82 / 291	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, −2, −6, −5, 4, −17, −25, −25, −32 → −13.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 7.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.5 × 2.66 = 20. Upper limit 6.7, lower limit −33.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.