Forest Charter: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,261	2391.0	− 2436	−45	× 22 / 336	−2.9
4	47,262	2431.0	− 2485	−54	× 27 / 336	−4.3
5	47,265	2451.5	− 2528	−76.5	× 33 / 336	−7.5
6	47,267	2524.9	− 2552	−27.1	× 40 / 336	−3.2
7	47,268	2530.4	− 2567	−36.6	× 44 / 336	−4.8
8	47,271	2523.4	− 2586	−62.6	× 70 / 336	−13
11	47,272	2524.4	− 2628	−103.6	× 100 / 336	−30.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,937	2403.8	− 2436	−32.2	× 30 / 342	−2.8
4	43,940	2438.0	− 2485	−47	× 32 / 342	−4.4
5	43,941	2495.6	− 2528	−32.4	× 37 / 342	−3.5
6	43,944	2495.6	− 2552	−56.4	× 47 / 342	−7.8
7	43,945	2542.9	− 2567	−24.1	× 52 / 342	−3.7
8	43,947	2529.5	− 2586	−56.5	× 54 / 342	−8.9
11	43,950	2555.2	− 2628	−72.8	× 90 / 342	−19.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,009	2415.4	− 2436	−20.6	× 26 / 325	−1.6
4	45,011	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 33 / 325	−4.6
5	45,012	2481.3	− 2528	−46.7	× 41 / 325	−5.9
6	45,015	2530.1	− 2552	−21.9	× 55 / 325	−3.7
7	45,016	2548.3	− 2567	−18.7	× 53 / 325	−3
8	45,019	2533.5	− 2586	−52.5	× 59 / 325	−9.5
11	45,021	2551.6	− 2628	−76.4	× 58 / 325	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,021	2396.6	− 2436	−39.4	× 31 / 385	−3.2
4	45,024	2477.5	− 2485	−7.5	× 35 / 385	−0.7
5	45,025	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 50 / 385	−9.1
6	45,028	2502.8	− 2552	−49.2	× 55 / 385	−7
7	45,029	2536.5	− 2567	−30.5	× 69 / 385	−5.5
8	45,032	2544.4	− 2586	−41.6	× 69 / 385	−7.5
11	45,033	2551.3	− 2628	−76.7	× 76 / 385	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,155	2424.7	− 2436	−11.3	× 37 / 396	−1.1
4	45,156	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 40 / 396	−4.6
5	45,157	2491.6	− 2528	−36.4	× 36 / 396	−3.3
6	45,158	2484.4	− 2552	−67.6	× 54 / 396	−9.2
7	45,159	2508.6	− 2567	−58.4	× 68 / 396	−10
8	45,160	2538.2	− 2586	−47.8	× 83 / 396	−10
11	45,161	2572.6	− 2628	−55.4	× 78 / 396	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,880	2403.7	− 2436	−32.3	× 46 / 366	−4.1
4	44,881	2454.9	− 2485	−30.1	× 39 / 366	−3.2
5	44,882	2458.2	− 2528	−69.8	× 51 / 366	−9.7
6	44,883	2515.0	− 2552	−37	× 50 / 366	−5.1
7	44,884	2523.2	− 2567	−43.8	× 54 / 366	−6.5
8	44,885	2559.5	− 2586	−26.5	× 65 / 366	−4.7
11	44,886	2561.5	− 2628	−66.5	× 61 / 366	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,856	2428.1	− 2436	−7.9	× 44 / 406	−0.9
4	44,857	2443.0	− 2485	−42	× 56 / 406	−5.8
5	44,858	2478.1	− 2528	−49.9	× 50 / 406	−6.1
6	44,859	2475.5	− 2552	−76.5	× 50 / 406	−9.4
7	44,860	2546.1	− 2567	−20.9	× 59 / 406	−3
8	44,861	2508.9	− 2586	−77.1	× 66 / 406	−12.5
11	44,862	2527.0	− 2628	−101	× 81 / 406	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,691	2393.1	− 2436	−42.9	× 45 / 417	−4.6
4	44,692	2453.0	− 2485	−32	× 49 / 417	−3.8
5	44,693	2452.8	− 2528	−75.2	× 53 / 417	−9.6
6	44,694	2492.4	− 2552	−59.6	× 54 / 417	−7.7
7	44,695	2507.3	− 2567	−59.7	× 70 / 417	−10
8	44,696	2531.1	− 2586	−54.9	× 74 / 417	−9.7
11	44,697	2533.6	− 2628	−94.4	× 72 / 417	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,431	2391.3	− 2436	−44.7	× 46 / 438	−4.7
4	44,432	2432.8	− 2485	−52.2	× 54 / 438	−6.4
5	44,433	2468.4	− 2528	−59.6	× 57 / 438	−7.8
6	44,434	2455.4	− 2552	−96.6	× 69 / 438	−15.2
7	44,435	2511.9	− 2567	−55.1	× 57 / 438	−7.2
8	44,436	2523.6	− 2586	−62.4	× 80 / 438	−11.4
11	44,437	2541.7	− 2628	−86.3	× 75 / 438	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −67, −50, −42, −48, −49, −44, −58, −62, −67 → −54.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 7.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.5 × 2.66 = 20. Upper limit −34.1, lower limit −74.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.