Lorena Falasco Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,201	2409.8	− 2436	−26.2	× 124 / 519	−6.3
4	44,204	2442.2	− 2485	−42.8	× 130 / 519	−10.7
5	44,205	2466.9	− 2528	−61.1	× 130 / 519	−15.3
6	44,208	2485.4	− 2552	−66.6	× 135 / 519	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,898	2438.3	− 2436	2.3	× 121 / 524	0.5
4	40,899	2457.8	− 2485	−27.2	× 133 / 524	−6.9
5	40,902	2466.1	− 2528	−61.9	× 135 / 524	−15.9
6	40,903	2487.5	− 2552	−64.5	× 135 / 524	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,900	2416.8	− 2436	−19.2	× 121 / 494	−4.7
4	41,903	2446.7	− 2485	−38.3	× 117 / 494	−9.1
5	41,904	2489.5	− 2528	−38.5	× 124 / 494	−9.7
6	41,907	2480.6	− 2552	−71.4	× 132 / 494	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,934	2431.2	− 2436	−4.8	× 101 / 482	−1
4	41,935	2446.0	− 2485	−39	× 124 / 482	−10
5	41,938	2471.5	− 2528	−56.5	× 130 / 482	−15.2
6	41,940	2501.2	− 2552	−50.8	× 127 / 482	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,080	2436.3	− 2436	0.3	× 121 / 495	0.1
4	42,081	2451.2	− 2485	−33.8	× 111 / 495	−7.6
5	42,082	2469.1	− 2528	−58.9	× 131 / 495	−15.6
6	42,083	2484.9	− 2552	−67.1	× 132 / 495	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,829	2399.0	− 2436	−37	× 115 / 466	−9.1
4	41,830	2434.7	− 2485	−50.3	× 107 / 466	−11.5
5	41,831	2423.3	− 2528	−104.7	× 122 / 466	−27.4
6	41,832	2461.7	− 2552	−90.3	× 122 / 466	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,860	2416.5	− 2436	−19.5	× 108 / 472	−4.5
4	41,861	2428.1	− 2485	−56.9	× 120 / 472	−14.5
5	41,862	2447.7	− 2528	−80.3	× 124 / 472	−21.1
6	41,863	2410.4	− 2552	−141.6	× 120 / 472	−36
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,691	2417.9	− 2436	−18.1	× 100 / 457	−4
4	41,692	2417.4	− 2485	−67.6	× 109 / 457	−16.1
5	41,693	2434.8	− 2528	−93.2	× 126 / 457	−25.7
6	41,694	2434.6	− 2552	−117.4	× 122 / 457	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,454	2430.0	− 2436	−6	× 89 / 427	−1.3
4	41,455	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 105 / 427	−11.1
5	41,456	2443.4	− 2528	−84.6	× 112 / 427	−22.2
6	41,457	2432.0	− 2552	−120	× 121 / 427	−34
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −50, −39, −43, −40, −41, −72, −76, −77, −69 → −56.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 7.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.9 × 2.66 = 21. Upper limit −35.3, lower limit −77.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.